Hypotheisis Agenda of Millanila Gneration Prevents Extintion and 21st C humanity becomes best of times for peak of 10 billion lives on earth- note population expoentials 8 bilion in 2020s 

WE NEED TRANSPARENY LINKING WORLDS MATHS GENII- NEUMANN EINSYTEIN TURING BOATS INNOVATION TYPE 6 engines for brainworking includes computer hardware - immediate cidre sodrware - blebding of human-computer language (AI)

PUZZLE 1951 - as it turned out less than 7 years to see expoential ops and threats of net -http://neumann.ning.com - Economist Editir asks MNeumann pre-reaining survey needed between engineers, economist , journalists- its agreed ask leaders what vision is whetrever people unite whetever first access to at least 100 time more com - eg moores law or 100 times more coms -eg consequences of satllite coms both visible 1965

200s 3 greatest human inspirations seen in silicon valley - abed converst jobs and gates; in 2009 valley first sees maths genii dei-fei li and hassabis- about 7 people around stanfird have seen with jobs need ti desihgn pro-youth pro-female coding vulture - welcome fei-fei li from 2009- she's now around 30 having immigrated from china age 15 with no english- miracles: geetting scholarsj=hip princeton- driven by einstein physics curiosity which she cobvers to blend of comoutation and neuroscince- almos nowhete accepts that doctirate but he finds caltec; with her new doctirate princeto appoints her assistant professor but computing funds have to be won from nsf which says the budget goies to supercomputer at chicago-chapagne ; it takes fei fei li total of 12 years 2006-2017 to embed ai database with 20 million images- 20000 enties humans work, play with most

-big breakthrough 2009 - at age 30 princeton first place to competely welcome her- she worls out manual coding -amazin turks- begons annual cooperation challenge image net; 2009 first time she sees hassabis in valley event ythrough sponsrhip of londons gatsby network - hassabis bring games to comp-neuroscience - hypothesis hassabis and li together rank as maths equals to net- of course they need support of many huge funders as well as linking in previously siloised academic field

2012 is turning point - neural netwrking algoiths valued by net applied with furst breakthrough success since death od net by 2 draduates of hinton applying logics lecun an bengio had also kep alive

ptretty much ever big influencer stars betting on this as revolkutioary moment

hassavois stars geting funbdiung from ventuyre capitalists to contine his london work ; by 2014 its agrred he needs to merge with google comoutatioal power

nvidia's ceo starts designikng gpus wityh 80 billion trnsistors - this takes 5 yrars to be priofitable but he wss inspired by 2012 revolution momemty and melinda gates who's also inspire with nvidia help fei-fei launch curricula non proifit a-4-all piloted stanfird summer camp 2014; coast to coiast drom 2015; as un decares 17 goals kim and guterres ask melinda gates and jack ma to desing un2.0 to change how every humans learning time spent and unite aiforgoof itu geneva, un hq ny, every prqactice branch of un - eg gilal 2 food out of urope

li presents at innuaguralaigoodsummuit itu - which becomes continuous virtual web; and its with her non-profit iudentiry she testifies to congree- wgats coning next is millions of thimes more computer power applued to computers seeing everyhthinh humans publish and chat

li is actuallu on first 10 year sabattical at google cloud 201-19-sees exytraordinary computu ng power of corporate world and businees pirches of cloud going into ai which she also had seen with automoous car dricing entreprenurs- she wonders why dont we do same robot-ai vision trech in caring for patents post -emergency ops which her mom has spent years just surviving- agrees to go back to co-launch staford hai- human centeed ai- is there any disciplie at stanforrd not beeding ai 2,0 version; if you look at stanford people like jeerry hang since 2007 have built all star sposor lan and this is also rwinned with stanford business park and the sister citeis palo alto moutain viuew santa clara - so standord as humanai acamidemic coopearttion google dep mind brain ; and potentially every partner under the sun can be the future - how will large llm revolution fit into that - intriguingly the net had expected 1001 language mediation english-through 999 mother tingues to one maths of ai; eistein had expexcted everone in 2020s wpould have personalised learning agency geared to livelihoods and life- turing had expected revokution in dep data of which imagent is first paradimg- many of the doctirate stundents of the bif 3 elder professors hinron 25 years oler than li; lucun, bengio 15 now in middle of llms - coursea founsers one of first teams welcoming fei-fei ie andrew ng stanfird, daphne koller biotecy stanford, lila ibrahim now coo london deep niind google brain

the eplus taiwanese americans je=rry yanfh jensen humang joseph tsia purpose are core as are the 2 ms T&T who can make brokklyn the inner city twin of stanfrg engineerung girl power across east river from unsumitfuture - all to play for every lasdy year of war and peace - wirg 23-24 and 24-25 guterres 2 final years before his 10 years leadetrhip up foir re-election - currently every sdgoal collapsing backwars can UN LLM change everything?

RISKS 1950 - future of energy future of broken geonomics across hemispherres;need to design above zero sume trading models;  no legislatures of staying ahead of 100 times more coopperation connectivity - rebuild everywhere including 2 capitals bombed to bits; stalin odd leader out; uk bankrupt by paying for arms for europe to beat hitler- so rush to gramnt eg wquater of people on indian subcontinent independece but almost no economic or leadertship support

kennedy's 3 goals good - peace coprps, interde=4 time moore than end of world war 2; 2/3 are asinas; less than 20% are caucasian wjite but perhaps 80% of finacial decision making still rooted in whites - and nb the capital cities of g8 nations all north of 39 (dc lomdon Berlin Tokyo Moscow Paris Rome Ottwa - thats quite a geonomiv mess - particularly as indian subcomtinent and chinese speaking people each quarter of human population but many still straving as recently as 1960; geonomics complicatedf neough with most growth dynamics apearning tp be east-west; but 4 north -south responsibilities - america; west coast europe; central europe-asia which is also russia down through swizerland germany hungary middle eadt suez cala pacific ost africa where most world wars and failed nations seem to have spun since 1900 or earlie far east coast - islands and penisural japan korea taiwan hk singapaore - asean futher east; china mainland coast west atop s.east asia - Until 1970 greatts of economis primarily human mental models of ethics eg adam smith and keynes and mediation by james wilson alumni of queen voisctoria's need to transform from slavemaking empire to commonwealth; up to 1950 5 types of engines - 3 begiun in scotlandfd had advanced less than 20% of huamnity 200 fold leaving mpost of rest at susisetnce scots 3 can be described asd physical power combustion engine from 1760 all dynmaics of automation (rural to city life - factories ; sanitation ... agreeing worldwide time/navigation coordunatesd) mass transportation foirts being railways from 1776 irsh lead people in usa to demand indepence in building their continent of 1000 times more resources than britania's ne and a hlaf islands (as of 1776 usa immigrant population half of britain but within 40 years double0- usas is study of making big from engine innoivations begun in europe type 4 and 5 engines invented central europe eg in german and french (and perhaps russian0 languages - ie communicatiosn engines- and electricity from 1865 switzerland agreed as worldiwde epicentre agreeing cooperation uograde standards of coms)

good to see entrepreneurial revolution live and well among valley women

 https://hai.stanford.edu/events/crispr-ai-and-ethics-scientific-discovery

Twin revolutions at the start of the 21st century are shaking up the very idea of what it means to be human. Computer vision and image recognition are at the heart of the AI revolution. And CRISPR is a powerful new technique for genetic editing that allows humans to intervene in evolution.

Jennifer Doudna and Fei-Fei Li, pioneering scientists in the fields of gene editing and artificial intelligence, respectively, will be on stage discussing the ethics of scientific discovery.

Doudna, a professor of chemistry and molecular and cell biology at U.C. Berkeley, rocked the research world in 2012 when she and her colleagues announced the invention of CRISPR-Cas9, a technology that uses an RNA-guided protein found in bacteria to edit an organism's DNA quickly and inexpensively. Li is a professor of computer science at Stanford and co-director of the university's Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (HAI). She served as director of Stanford’s AI Lab from 2013 to 2018, and during her sabbatical, she was Vice President at Google and served as Chief Scientist of AI/ML at Google Cloud. Li joined Stanford's faculty in 2009, and her main research areas are in machine learning, deep learning, computer vision and cognitive and computational neuroscience. She invented ImageNet and the ImageNet Challenge, a critical large-scale dataset and benchmarking effort that has contributed to the latest developments in deep learning and AI.

Moderating the discussion will be Russ Altman, the Kenneth Fong Professor of Bioengineering, Genetics, Medicine, Biomedical Data Science and (by courtesy) Computer Science at Stanford. He is the past chairman of the Bioengineering Department at Stanford University. His primary research interests are in the application of computing and informatics technologies to problems relevant to medicine. He hosts the Stanford Engineering program The Future of Everything.

2012 coming soon lot more oneducation

over 33 yeras we have debated education (livelihoods everyone as lifelong tecaher and learner) is pivotal to himan sustaonability - see also why adma smith clarified that western university education was never designed with youth as the custmer abd likely to be disatrous in times when much of the mlost valuable elarnking was new every few years as is the case as oiur mobile age accelerayes

when it comes to the un - the main education forum seem to be taaken ofver by the educaation system as normal- unesco is responsible foir gopal 4 reports that dont do the boxless kind of thinking thhjat the new head of unhabitat does in her filed

when gordon brown un envvoyfor education formed 30 national leaders of education commision only two led by jack m were concerend with changing tghe shytsm taking it outside teh calssroorm- the main group are concerend with more finds and another group try to match poor systems with better systems across analgous nations

jack ma soon found unctad more relevany- he is retaring hundreds of coders scouted by unctad and becoming alumni of his global bsuiess school - see also www.worldrecordjobs.comhttp://worldrecordjobs.com for more initaives jack does with the un concerened with putting youth in meiddle of what is innovated

jack ma has also said that hios ecooerce platforks while fine fir sme deskign of finance and of thisgs bought and sold- are noi the main pkatfirm fir happiness socail scetirs includinh educaytion health, arts and other community participation celebrations- he will focus on tehese from 2020 on with his olympics platform

some of the un eminent committes afre most concerned with education - others with new development banking
the unai (hsts about) 8 special interst groups in education which it also calls hibs- qatar which hosts wise also hose the unai refugee elarning hub- amma in india is assigned nanotechnolkgy research for the poor by world elading nanotech experts interest in including poverty in their compass

with guterres the head of in since start of 2-016 (the sdg era) - coming from lifetime serving refugees - elearning revolutions offer hope to refugees that classical system cant- the 2015 varkey million dolar teacher prize summit in duba hosted lot of outside system people

the worlds only model of community livelihood education kis brac - the summit oct 1-5 2018 will be fjurst chnace for academkics associated with jack ma and vrac to explore each lothers futures- brac was the inaugiral education lajureate at wise but the 2nd through 6th laureates have been within system people -however these profiles show that wise delegates from china in partiocula see edutech as innovation outside the system

one way to open up education youth eed is to look for mssing curricula and then cklatifu how best yo provide them

4 languagres (chinese englist mother tongue coding) need to be 10 times cheaper and this will come mainly freom peer to peer blended on;ine not classroom appriaches

financial ebtreprebeurial and open spoace literacies come from expereintial spaces not examination classrooms as do so many community microfrancjsies neeeding repliocation if youth livelihhods and being tyhe sustainability generation are to be matcjed
seeing bri as a curriculium of is our nation equkitably linked into the world suoerports and continent wkide gruds is also an example of a local to global cutrriu=iculum which needs quizes and maps shared across natin classrooms

the arctic crircles 8 nations are fantastic space for changing education - eg many schools are in remore places across north rissuis, niry canada alaska greenland idcelan- studnets are demanding tools such as augmented reality gooles so tey can experience coming to school as if they were in each others communities- watch the agedas of how innovation of education is being celebrated by youth of the 8 artci circle countreis

why mit would be norman macraes' and ER's fav spot to linkin 2013

some notes on what we love about visiting mit and student competitions are here: 1
other notes on a tour of mit norman macrae would love

as you likely know mit includes

berners lee and the web is for everyone

media lab, which began with $100 laptop is for every chilld but which now also experiments with the mobile is for every child and poorest village to transform value chains

start of massive online open curriculum

most prolific student competition space on the planet

world's number 1 job creating alumni network

dubai's most exciting youth entrepreneur research hub - legatum ...



rest of this section carries posts mainly sent to mit student networks especuially those due to linkin worldwide crowdfund searches of 2013 or student competition entries

as student crowdfund team mentioned they may be including Myanmar in their search , I thought you might be interested in attached attendee list: usaid circulation on launch of educational programs to myanmar

my family's life histories connect with myanmar and bangladesh as dads first job as a teenager was navigating raf planes in the region in world war 2 but while I have spent a lot of last 5 years understanding who's who in bangladesh - have never been to myanmar- sir fazle abed who won the first wise oscars of education -and my dad's friends at Japan Embassy in Dhaka - may call for a one day brainstorm on how to MOOC everything to do with bottom-up investment and youth collaboration models in march as phase 1 of calling for microeducationsummit (technology, education and credit) to converge post 2105 millennium goals summiting

back on myanmar- usaid appeared to say to 500 delegates Wash Dc Dec 2012 that they will mainly support a hybrid model of 4 partners - university and corporation both usa and in myanmar -this would seem to make it difficult to crowdfund myanmar unless a university in usa sets up a friendly space so that project by project the other 3: us corporate myanmar corporate, myanmar uni can be searched

another slight frustration of mine is that in dc region I am linking together several people and embassies studying how to turn orphanages into regional job creating hubs- i would have thought that myanmar might want to join in studying that model but usaid-process is making that quite hard for an individual like me to issue invitation

naila chowdhury and shafqat ullah are 2 people who guide me through what open technology can do out of bangladesh

-naila currently lives in dc region after serving grameenphone and ceo yunus technology for a long time-she and I are judges at next week's 4 yunus statewide student entrepreneur compettiion in alabama which also aims to startup the yunus university of ending poverty

shafqat links bangladeshi wizard technologists and is talking with brilliant/skoll on how ILABS can be extended across region given start made in Cambodia

apologies if too many choices mapped above - trying editorially to get both yunus and abed family members to open up all their knowledge in moocs in under one quarter is likely to mean that young people need to choose where they want to linkin and massively collaborate

there are also some fascinating green energy collaborations being written up for moocworld- i recall that when melissa launched social valuation student networking across region 4 years ago, a nobel laureate from uni of maryland declared inteerest in reconciling a green marshall plan- maryland also has some brilliant chinese students concerned with bottom up green energy networking as I found out at a recent brookings meeting on subject; the sainsbury supermarket philanthropy are a family friend back in london- with prince charles they run microenergy awards at http://ashden.org which needs to be turned into a mooc in my opinion - journalisticly, not too hard for them to do as their family are also major shareholders in The Economist; also interesting is that one of the 2 retiring student ceos of mit100k is passionate about green while the other is being headhunted by samsung out of south korea' and the theme of the yunus prize at mit this year is education

-as geo-serendipity would have it the other norman macrae in my family tree started life as a missionary in korea

bbc- why not world service of poverty museum reality games and info

back in 1984, norman solution for making sure enough family investors and youth chose heroic goals to-produce with being digitally connected was the bbc (the largest investment public have ever made in braidcasting) could run reality tv rograms -poverty museum apprentices before american pop singing idols- as well as prepare or truly celebrating millennnium goals

sources emerging on why not future of bbc -and indeed all major public media partners norman also expected to partner - back in 1984 india's dd having 2nd greatest reach

http://notimeleft.org  http://africa24tv.com various end the disaster movie from skoll/brilliant begun by inconveneint truth ....
=================================================================
transparency note -while normans family were only ispired by genius like dr yunus and sir fazle abed to start up Noramn Macrae Family Foundation in his last 2 years (2008 on)- Norman helped found WorldClassBrands on his formal retiremnt from The Economist in 1988 -for particularly young media men and women who believe media can improve the human lot - these days WCB is just one of NMFOUND projects
references brandmooc - wcb.tv  NMfound.net
===============================================================


To: Drum Beat and Soul Beat Africa Network participants
From: Warren Feek

Re: "Why Poverty?" Documentaries now available to view in full online

Greetings Chris

Poverty is perhaps the major development issue - one that certainly underpins most other development priorities.

Public debate is a key key element for effective change - and a major strategic principle of communication for social change.

The "Why Poverty?" documentary series - see http://www.comminit.com/whypoverty/category/sites/global/why-poverty - seeks to expand critical public review, engagement and debate on poverty.

In December 2012 those documentaries were broadcast in over 70 countries.

The "Why Poverty" folks are now making these available online, free, in full for all to access.

Within the summaries below you will find links to be to these 4 documentaries on line.

Please look for this hyper-linked text within the summaries linked below "THE DOCUMENTARIES ARE NOW AVAILABLE TO ALL. CLICK HERE TO ACCESS AND WATCH THE FULL…"

If you do view these documentaries please also complete the poll, share to your social networks and add your ratings and comments in the comments box at the bottom of the summary.

We will share the remaining four summaries soon.

DOCUMENTARIES

1. "Solar Mamas" - "a film about the heroic efforts of one woman as she overcomes significant difficulties to become a solar engineer".
http://www.comminit.com/whypoverty/content/solar-mamas-are-women-better-getting-out-poverty-men


2. Education! Education! - "In China, where an education was once valued and thought to be a way out of poverty, it is now questionable as a route to economic security."
http://www.comminit.com/whypoverty/content/education-education


3.Stealing Africa - How much profit is fair? - "Stealing Africa describes the tax system employed by multinational companies in Africa".
http://www.comminit.com/whypoverty/content/stealing-africa-how-much-profit-fair


4.Welcome to the World - "looks at the fact that every year 130 million babies are born, but their chances in life depend on the lottery of where, how and to whom they are born"
http://www.comminit.com/whypoverty/content/welcome-world-it-better-be-born-poor-or-die-poor


Chris - Thanks - please do review these important documentaries and share your critical review through the interactive processes available

Why Poverty?
http://www.comminit.com/whypoverty/


Warren

Warren Feek
Executive Director
The Communication Initiative

.Examples of multi-win and exponential sustaining models.. patient capital - ie where investors win-win with organisational purpose and 10-year exponential growth not quarterly extraction 100% social busienss model 51& social business model conscious capitalism model half-generation industry sector transformation models a model for ensuring last gamechanger in industry is retained over time for radical win-win modeling even as there is either a luddite or speculator or fatally conceited academic's   war to prevent the innovation that most people want for the futire

..Quiz- What type of model to use ? M-goals developing world 1  to aid place with half-generation project in areas with no infrastructure and no spare organisation 2 to resolve poverty in place wher big internal corporates have history of extraction 3 where the development challenge is not lack of wealth or lack of local orgainisiational capacity but a demographic who have been traeteted as underclass In developed world where elders have destroyed budgets so there are no prospects for youth to grow where a whole industry chain needs replacing if country is to be sustainable for next generations where collaboration knowledge networking could be 10 times more productive than siloised owneship of pieces of knowledge

nb problem will often involve many of these challenges at smae time as those with a bank of funds will not be able to choose only one type

Borderless Youth Peacemakers

They will need to have cross-culturally correct access to curriculum vitae of history's greatest goodwill leaders and servants of humanity as well as 100 leaders of 2010s investing in youth co-productiions of what collaboration tech can make youth's most productive, sustainable and heroic time

Warning: if commentary below offends you - look at some of our other content as this piece is only important if you can feel comfy with it- the fact that reconciliation practices are not widely integrated into economics decision-makers recent behaviours scares me as a maths guy. To see what we mean from a socially grounded guy,- refer to harrison owen www.practiceofpeace.com  or if need be I am chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk

What Keynes General Theory does : explains connections between peace and system design, and warns youth to be vigilant against academic economics gurus whose potentially fatal vanities combined with advising big decision-makers compounds the world's greatest risks. That's why our list of conscious system leaders includes 8 economists or maths guys whose ideas had pro-youth impacts wherever they were used. When you choose local leaders that needs much more cross-cultural future history sense than we claim to have so we have kept to four we believe did more than any peoples had the right to expect from a human being. We have added 2 practice leaders Mother Theresa in healthcare and Montessori in schools - we realise there are many more practitioners to praise but those two have lifetimes we believe all youth ought to know. 

What Kaiser Wilhem did was be in the wrong place for carelessness that spun over half a century of wars out of Europe. He wasn't evil like a Hitler or a Stalin but he was situated at a time when many crises of the industrial age had been spinning and he was at the top of the whole house of cards. Ditto George Bush - everyone around in the 21st C today has peacemaking problems to solve that someone less careless than Bush might not have compounded. However if you side with George Bush and believe he had an impossible job then you are concluding that there are systems that are not too big to fail but too big to exist. And this is arguably our great post-industrial problem- today we are the first generation who can scale systems that rival nature's in planetary size. In doing that we run the risk that she will decide the human race is the next dodo. We need a majortiy of worldwide youth to be peacemakers - ie capable of cross-cultural celebration through every community. Interestingly the Lucknow City Montessori schooling system nurtures 50000 youth at any ine time being the only schooling system run by the Gandhi family www.cmseducation.org  with major peace prizes. It is a curriculum worth every youth connecting with

Discussion questions

what is phony capitalism

what in social or political context are examples of forbidden questions

to take a relatively trivial case of bush's destruction of freedom of speech begin with the dixie chicks case, how do you contrast it with Putin Pussy Riot case

from the point of view of statistics, the end 2000 election race between bush and gore was a dead heat- do you think world would be in a whollt different place if Gore had led USA into 21st C -discuss with someone who holds an opposite view as a person not as a member of either party  

footnote- more on Lucknow

The Largest school in terms of pupils is the City Montessori School in Lucknow, India, which had a record enrolment of 39,437 children on 9 August 2010 for the 2010-11 academic year. The school admits boys and girls between ages two and five, who can then continue their education to degree level. In 2002, it won the UNESCO Prize for peace way since Jagdish Gandhi and his wife Bharti first opened it in 1959 with a loan of just 300 rupees ($63, £22). Then it had a grand total of five pupils! click here to read the complete report....

s.korea: Lim Globalizing Asia (2007)The negative impacts of top-down economic globalization have shown us that the structural adjustment programs end with social dissolution, political decay, and economic stagnation. Given this, this article suggests, tentatively, an alternative development paradigm for Globalizing Asia: the “stakeholder model” of capitalism. This model highlights the critical role of NGOs in committing themselves to the organized interests of the peoples public goods.

The Rise of Asia
:More than thirty years ago, Norman Macrae (1975), who was then the deputy editor of the Economist, talked about the coming of the “Pacific Century.” According to him, the world had gone through the “British Century” (1775-1875), the “American Century” (1875-1975), and now was entering the “Pacific Century” (1975-2075?). Asia was seen as a newly rising leader in the international political and economic system. Its extraordinary vitality has forced development scholars and practitioners to “ReOrient” the history of capitalist development in the region.

more at www.asiapacific.cc  and http://planetmooc.com 

x

economics of manufacturing is dead, long live makers jobs

Its quite dismal how few economists have engaged consistently and pro-actively in this debate first opened up for worldwide interaction by dad's article in The Economist of 1982 (Intrapreneurial Now- extract below)- the time at which the majority of developed economies had become service economies and were heading towards knowledge economies as the only sustainable future   - help us discuss the opportunities of linking into this debate and the risks of not

.OPPORTUNITIES the number 1 job creating alumni network in the world hubs round MIT in Boston - where makers.are still celebrated more than any other kind of student (2012)innovations vol 7 issue 3 MIT press has a superb issue on Making in America

.RISKS because most mindsets of economists - let alone the data they churn on the nightly news is stuck in the industrial era they bury so much political discourse  in  history so  failing to ever make a start on the journey  to create the next 3 billion jobs (if you want some details on how the EU in Brussels has failed on starting this for over 20 years now - the first time I was asked to research the impact of Brussels'  grants -on that occasion for whole of Portugal).. economists stuck in industrial and tv ad age era  also fail to mediate - let alone value -million times more collaboration technology. Such economists are designing the exact opposite of what leaders of 2010s www.wholeplanet.tv = youths most productive decade need to mobilise inter-generational investment in

x

extract from 1982 norman macrae INTRAPRENEURIAL NOW -more here 

INTRAPRENEURIAL NOW By: Norman Macrae

In a survey called "The coming entrepreneurial revolution" in The Economist of December 25, 1976, Norman Macrae argued that "methods of operation in business are going to change radically in the next few decades, in a direction opposite to that which most businessmen and nearly all politicians expect". The survey aroused enthusiasm and infuriation in almost equal measure, with invitations to lecture in more than 20 countries. Today Macrae updates his views on management methods that can make even lousy businesses profitable, and those that are driving tighter organizations to the wall.

Big goes bust

The 1976 survey argued that the world was probably drawing to the end of the era of big business corporations, because it would soon be seen to be nonsense to have hierarchical managements sitting in skyscraping offices trying to arrange how brainworkers (who in future would be most workers) could best use their imaginations. The main increases in employment would henceforth come either in small firms or in those bigger firms that managed to split themselves into smaller and smaller profit centres which would need to become more and more entrepreneurial.

As so often with supposedly controversial journalism, this proved to be an exercise in tentatively forecasting something that had already begun to happen a decade before, although it honestly was the opposite of what was being most widely reported at the time. In 1976 the textbooks being most assiduously fed to business courses were still Ken Galbraith's. "The new industrial state" and Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber's "Le definamericain", each of which was a bible to the advocates of industrial policies then subsidising British Steels, British Leylands and Projects Concorde into growing inefficiently larger and therefore irretrievably bust. These mergers were procreated on the thesis, explicitly stated by Ken Galbraith, that markets had been replaced by planning in favor of big technostructures so that large organizations like Chrysler or United States Steel did not lose money any more. "By all but the pathologically romantic", cried Ken Galbraith in 1967, "it is now recognized that this is not the age of the small man". He believed that the most economic size for business corporations in the future could be "'very, very large".

Shortly before these two books were -written and, instantly reached the best-selling lists, precisely the opposite trends had remorselessly begun to occur.

By 1965 small workplaces were already outperforming big ones on almost every count. Even in idealistic occupations, British hospitals with under 100 beds had between one half and two thirds the sickness rates among nurses as hospitals with more than 100 beds. I got my saddest quote of the late 1970s from the manager of a huge factory in Manchuria (though he could find echoes at Detroit, London Airport, Kama River): "During the period of disruption by the gang of four many workers came only on pay-days, some carrying placards saying I was a fly on top of putrescent meat. With 10,(XX) comrades here, it was impossible to check the absenteeism, pilfering and work-dodging that went on".

The biggest world political event since the 1960s is that communist countries have proved less able than free-market ones to escape from inefficient giantism in state factories and farms, so they are all going bust. In free-market countries managers are eventually more willing to lose face than their shareholders are to lose money, but tough problems are arising as even capitalist giants slim.

Since the mid-1960s the thousand biggest firms in the United States have as a group been sensibly reducing their labour forces, and more than the whole of the 15m private-sector jobs created since then have come in smaller firms-the majority of the new extra jobs at any one time being in firms less than five years old, even though more than half of new small American firms disappear out of business in their first five years. Although survey dates are jumbled, the accompanying inadequate charts suggest the same trend is accelerating even in manufacturing across the capitalist world. The present capitalist conjuncture is therefore one where the bigger and more stable firms are running down their employment, while more than the whole of net new employment is provided by small firms which, however, frequently go bust. Ow! And some thought needs to be given to ways of combining the advantages of small firms within big ones.

Make departments minifirms

In my 1976 survey I suggested there would be two trends-in the most conventional of which, greater reliance on subcontracting, I now think I was jejune. Subcontracting works only when the big firm has very tight quality control (as have Marks and Spencer, big Japanese companies towards tiny component makers and the superbly entrepreneurial Italian textile industry, see later). Subcontracting does not work when the big firm cannot measure what quality is, so that many management consultants, public relations firms etc. are about to disappear because they are high-cost ramps.

The second system I suggested in 1976 was that dynamic corporations of the future should simultaneously be trying several alternative ways of doing things in competition within themselves, becoming what have later been called confederations of "intrapreneurs". Two key concepts for efficient businesses here. First, the right size for each profit centre or intrapreneurial group-by which I mean a group of friends working together in daily productivity hunt towards the same objective-is very small, probably not more than 10 or 11 people, however dynamic your top management. Jesus Christ tried 12, and that proved one too many. Second, firms should not pay people for attendance at the workplace but should pay competing groups for modules of work done.

Thus, if you need a typing pool, I have suggested it might be best to set up several competing groups of Typists Intrapreneurial. You would offer an index linked contract to the group for a set period, specifying the services you wanted in return for a lump-sum monthly payment. The typists would apportion the work among themselves, devise their own flexitime, choose their own lifestyles, decide whether to replace a leaver by a full-timer or part-timer or whether to do her work and keep more money per head. They could also decide whether to tender for extra paid work from outside. In offices with tomorrow's equipment, there could, see later, be a lot.

A trivial example? By comparison with the gains that can be made in other fields it is. Yet the EEC court of auditors has recently ruled that the proper output for a typist is around 24 pages a day, and was upset that in some EEC departments the average, was only 12. In The Economist on a print-day Wednesday, when we are feeling rather participatory, a top secretary will type around 60 pages. If some EEC departments went over to that pace through being Typists Intrapreneurial, the stenographers could choose to work only one day a week for the same weekly wage as now, or by slowing recruitment they could work for up to five times their existing wages for the same present attendance at the office, or they could become five times more efficient. In practice, competition would ensure a mixture of the three, and the scope in most other parts of the business and bureaucratic jungle is much vaster.

This survey will explore that wider jungle, starting from the intrapreneurial mechanisms needed to breed new projects and going on through to those needed eventually to kill outdated ones (and make it participatory fun to send them to South Korea).

About 85% of all the industrial R & D expenditure in the United States takes place in 300 large corporations. It is done very wastefully.

Towards inventors intrapreneurial

About 70,000 patents are issued in the United States each year. Of these, maybe 60,000 are never heard of again, because most are horse manure. There will be some hidden pearls among it, and more could be found if patent offices were more intrapreneurial instead of often being inefficient government filing offices, some not even properly computerized. Governments should establish competing intrapreneurial teams in patent offices, compiling competing databases.

Of the perhaps 10,000 new patents a year round the world that are used, only about 10-20 a year are for what the co-inventor of the ubiquitous integrated circuit, Mr. Jack Kilby, calls "major" inventions things that change our lives. A list of the world's major inventions over the past 50 years shows that big organizations claim to have discovered only around a third of them, and some of their claims are fibs. More than two thirds have been discovered by individuals or small businesses.

The individual inventors' list of the past 50 years turns alphabetically from air conditioning, automatic transmissions and ballpoint pens, through jet engines and penicillin, to xerography and the zipper. The big companies' list runs more predictably through crease-resistant fabrics, float glass, synthetic detergents. Note how these fit with corporate objectives; "We are a big textile or soap company, so go for something capital-intensive". "We are Pilkington's Glass, and if we can beat plate glass by developing float glass, then every motor car in the world will eventually pay us a royalty, so it is worth carrying on with research into solving the last three problems in the way of float glass even through 12 consecutive years of negative cash flow."

Nobody should underestimate the tangible and intrapreneurial excitement among a tiny group of researchers when such a big firm's opportunity presents itself. Sir Alastair Pilkington has described how his research group into float glass was kept small enough to maintain total secrecy, so that experiments had been in progress for seven years before competitors knew of them; how several of his team members, after working impossibly long hours, were carried away on stretchers suffering from heat exhaustion; how 100,000 tons of float glass were made and broken before the great day which produced the first bit they could sell. But, to quote Jack Kilby again, each invention presents a profile of opportunities and requirements, while each company has its own profile of what constitutes to it an acceptable product. The probability that these two profile, will coincide in any given case is not very high.

The result is that many big companies' brilliant researchers are, in conditions of great secrecy, in their seventh consecutive year of smashing unusable float glass.

The Pinchot proposals