Timelines Partnerships in world record job creation: 1972 The Economists' UG clarifies Sustainability Millennials Exponentials depend on how 4000 times more budget is spent on GTC -Global Tech Cmmunications- 2030 versus 1946. How? doubling of spend every 7 years -eg 46 to 53 von neumann computing ; 63-70 start of era of satellites ,moon landing, moores law computer chips -help timeline by place and jobs opportunity at www.futurecapitalism.tv - also summaries in right hand sidebar.Please note many 2015 postings DIARISE BACK FROM FUTURE SO YOU CAN JOIN IN!

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Thursday, December 31, 2015

Next j30 ICAF childrens olympiad: Major 2015 deadlines -DC=Washington DC twins with Lima Peru, Athgo Los Angeles, Pope Rome...

public
DC with ICAF June30 childrens olympiad;  DC august athgo summit open tech @World Bank

dc with ROME september 23-25 pope/POP at congress, white house, and NY UN -resource study POP with KIM

peru october world bank annual meets

collab of publishers world record job creation

DC june 30 july 1 - 1FE15 meet Far East's main sustainable millennials editor; (also 2FE15 date in mid august to confirm)

Friday, October 9, 2015






Minister of Economy and Finance in WBG event “Latin America: Lessons Learned from the Global Crisis”
  • After 48 years, the Annual Meetings of the Boards of Governors of both multilateral agencies will be held in Latin America.
  • For seven days Lima will become the financial capital of the world, bringing together 16 thousand participants from 188 countries.
Lima, June 10, 2014.- In October 2015 Peru will host the Annual Meetings of the Boards of Governors of the World Bank Group (WBG) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the world’s most important multilateral agencies, of which Peru is a full member.
The 2015 WBG/IMF Annual Meetings will provide Peru with a unique opportunity to strengthen its increasingly relevant position in the global stage. For seven days the country will be at the center of world attention and will have the chance to showcase its achievements and the policies implemented to become a referent at the regional and global level.
Peru’s President of the Council of Ministers, René Cornejo, officially announced the Meetings in the presence of WBG Secretary Mahmoud Mohieldin; IMF Secretary Jianhai Lin; Luis Miguel Castilla, Peru’s Economy and Finance Minister; and Julio Velarde, Governor of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru.








Renowned international experts talk about on the economic policies that can help Latin America return to the path of vigorous growth.





The Road to Lima






Initiative of the International Monetary Fund to prepare the groundwork for the 2015 Annual Meetings in Lima, Peru.





Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Thursday, May 14, 2015

stored computer program begins 1944 -von neumann ; oscar 015 turing film
collab survey: what real stuff olympads could celebrate?.

- with mass tv spinning massively from 1946: olympics focused on celebrating world record sports and entertainers but what about POP -preferential option poor- next alternative olympiads - 30 june washington dc - how do we link leaders . parents and sustainable millennials after the showtime to social action networks and elearning satellites and what do you suggest -chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk

next hi-level mentoring on POP in DC - Pope Francis congress and white house 23-25 september 2015 

7 billion people need to know: timeline-why spend 4000 tmes more on GTC?
1944 -von neumann stored computer program  ; oscar 015 turing film

Thursday, January 9, 2014

Unacknowledgded Giant 2.1

clicpic to search
Norman Macrae
Norman Macrae, Japan Order of Rising Sun with Gold Bars, CBE was a British economist, journalist and first author of internet generation (& 21st C youth economics), considered by some to have been one of the world's best forecasters when it came to economics and society -dad valued youth more than any economist or journalist or mass mediated public servant I have met- what were his methods?
Viscount Matt Ridley , long The Economist's Science editor, reminisces in 2010:on The Death of Optimism

When I joined the Economist in 1983, Norman Macrae was the deputy editor. He died last week at the age of 86. Soon after I joined the staff, a thing called a computer terminal appeared on my desk and my electric typewriter disappeared.

Mapping 3 billion new jobs- The book that launched the net generation
Around that time, Norman wrote a long article that became a book about the future. It was one of the strangest things I had ever read. Celebrating boundless optimism --
. This book explores the lovely future people could have if only all democrats made the right decisions.

Integrating a weird technological vision --
Eventually books, files, television programmes, computer information and telecommunications will merge. We'll have this portable object which is a television screen with first a typewriter, later a voice activator attached. Afterwards it will be minaturised so that your personal access instrument can be carried in your buttonhole, but there will be these cheap terminals around everywhere, more widely than telephones of 1984. ..
...The terminals will be used to access databases anywhere in the globe, and will become the brainworker's mobile place of work. Brainworkers, which will increasingly mean all workers, will be able to live in Tahiti if they want to and telecommute daily to the New York or Tokyo or Hamburg office through which they work. In the satellite age costs of transmission will not depend mainly on distance. And knowledge once digitalised can be replicated for use anywhere almost instantly.
and innovated a fresh economic perspective



online library of norman macrae - The Economist's Unacknowledged Giant



You need to look at converging 7 wonders of 10 times more economical, sustainable and heroic net generation every which way. For Norman's book looked at all of:

Leveraging optimal worldwide timing for change - back in 1984 :peace, energy, web as smart education and then smart commercial media, then cross-cultural goals then redesign banking and aid and healthcare and womens empowerment an public services and professions

Leveraging what is a regions greatest system conflict:
bangladesh : top-down aid and need to empower maximum bottom up diversity and resilience ti disasters but potentially highly fertile small land plots

Africa- need to end extraction by global corporations so find hi-trust leaders of industries africa can build iteslf

west - rotten media, pr lobbies, over-historic laws, rotten metrics as far as exponetial investment and collaboration across sub-states goes

japan and china- being celebrated by rest of world as creditor nations that need to lead worldwide youth's millennium goal investment and decisions

Leveraging gamechangers in each global market sector to integrate most massive whole truth purpose - what 7 billion people most want purpose of that sector to safely compound. Spotting ahead of time gamechangers - some of which will be last call for reversibility

Understanding how the greatest - goodwill's most multiplying heroes - of history provided clues on cross-cultural and borderless convergence. A different role for the world service public media

Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Friday, January 4, 2013




paragraph from current issue of journal of social business and youth economocs mooc


As Norman Macrae's 1984-2024 report outlines, this can be the key to all 7 purposeful sub-revolutions which need to be freed so that global village markets can joyfully co-create 3 billion jobs of the net generation

FREEDOM SEVENFOLD CONVERGENCE,  LET IT BE
7 Free the curriculum of Education, and smarten up media and mediation-value how knowledge multiplies in use unlike things that get consumed up
6 Free Value Chains of Clean Energy, Food and Water to be accessible within body's reach of desire -particularly infants' bodies
5 Free girl power by valuing the 21st C village nurse as the most trusted information networkers as well as valued servant
4 Free cashless banking to be an order of magnitude more impactful in crediting parents communal and youth's productive lifetimes
3 Free currencies and public servants from speculators vices and history's zero-sum value chains
2 Try to cross-culturally free the union of peace and economics by supporting youth in celebrating the vim of bottom-up and borderless heroes- yes we can do that if you value the curriculum of www.singforhope.org started out of New York as an alternative to 9/11 endgames
1 Value Multiply Exchanges around Do No harm professionals who systemically do most to  help open up maps of multi-win models by prioritising audits that stop externalisation of risks through boundaries- the most uneconomic ideology a borderless world or any species whose evolution nature values - could possibly be ruled by

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Purpose of education in 21st C - why not 10 times more affordable edu for those youth (wherever they were born) who want productive working lifetimes and lifelong learning to blend seamlessly in a world where economics is designed to optimalise productive human lifetimes and sustainable communities and brilliantly collaborative peer to peer networks

Happy 2013 to all young people -and young at heart - as we celebrate the year of the MOOC

..........

40 years ago when dad (Norman Macrae, a leading pro-youth economist and founder of the Entrepreneurial Revolution genre at The Economist ) and I first saw 500 youth sharing knowledge around an early digital network, it seemed that by 2010s it would be economically possible to develop worldwide job-creating education so that:

  • in any practical course, everyone could have almost free access to content animated by the world's most successful teacher
  • that's the promise that MOOC is starting to free hopefully at an exponentially rising rate starting in  tertiary but linking all the way back through the education chain


...New Zealand and 10 million chinese families now have other 30 years of experimentation around this line of thinking wherever people linkin to http://thelearningweb.net..Most of the rest of the world's educational systems (search Ken Robinson youtubes:  schools kill creativity ,,, changing paradigms .... bringon the learning revolution  ... multiple intelligences)) have not yet been designed around the needs of children but have become trapped by government and educators trying to hold onto a 4 dimensional monoploy of acreditation, certification, knowledge production and distribution (see confession at brookings 2012)...

we foresee that any gamechanger to education such as MOOC changes the role of local teachers to much more tutoring as well as searching out when local context is different in terms of practical priorities and facilities ; however we also assume that many skills will be integrated around a series of mobile apps (something which again needs an open dialogue on when is there a world's best way and when do local ways need to be valued more) - help with the girl effect case study that has become Muhammad Yunus number 1 focus since winning the Nobel peace prize in 2006- will the village nurse be the 21st c world's most trusted information networker 

as part of a vibrant age of communities and knowledge networking, we also value that education should bring back every opportunity for involving parents and communities into transferring skills practices to our children, ending the separation that children only need to be taught by professional educators

its vital to accelerate experimentation of every role that MOOCs can play because the risk has always been that the internet will be suject to a hostile takeove by tv ad mass media before enough people realise the 10 times more economic possibilities  of smart jobs-creating educational media compared to the dumbing down age that tv ad mass media trapped the late 20th century in

for all these sorts of reasons we are surveying educational opinion leaders who want to unite round a call fpor microeducationsummit and we aim to identify how other education gamechangers eg youth entrepreneur competitions, and  free university paradigms win-win with the age of the MOOC

Tuesday, December 25, 2012

why mit would be norman macraes' and ER's fav spot to linkin 2013

some notes on what we love about visiting mit and student competitions are here: 1
other notes on a tour of mit norman macrae would love

as you likely know mit includes

berners lee and the web is for everyone

media lab, which began with $100 laptop is for every chilld but which now also experiments with the mobile is for every child and poorest village to transform value chains

start of massive online open curriculum

most prolific student competition space on the planet

world's number 1 job creating alumni network

dubai's most exciting youth entrepreneur research hub - legatum ...



rest of this section carries posts mainly sent to mit student networks especuially those due to linkin worldwide crowdfund searches of 2013 or student competition entries

as student crowdfund team mentioned they may be including Myanmar in their search , I thought you might be interested in attached attendee list: usaid circulation on launch of educational programs to myanmar

my family's life histories connect with myanmar and bangladesh as dads first job as a teenager was navigating raf planes in the region in world war 2 but while I have spent a lot of last 5 years understanding who's who in bangladesh - have never been to myanmar- sir fazle abed who won the first wise oscars of education -and my dad's friends at Japan Embassy in Dhaka - may call for a one day brainstorm on how to MOOC everything to do with bottom-up investment and youth collaboration models in march as phase 1 of calling for microeducationsummit (technology, education and credit) to converge post 2105 millennium goals summiting

back on myanmar- usaid appeared to say to 500 delegates Wash Dc Dec 2012 that they will mainly support a hybrid model of 4 partners - university and corporation both usa and in myanmar -this would seem to make it difficult to crowdfund myanmar unless a university in usa sets up a friendly space so that project by project the other 3: us corporate myanmar corporate, myanmar uni can be searched

another slight frustration of mine is that in dc region I am linking together several people and embassies studying how to turn orphanages into regional job creating hubs- i would have thought that myanmar might want to join in studying that model but usaid-process is making that quite hard for an individual like me to issue invitation

naila chowdhury and shafqat ullah are 2 people who guide me through what open technology can do out of bangladesh
-naila currently lives in dc region after serving grameenphone and ceo yunus technology for a long time-she and I are judges at next week's 4 yunus statewide student entrepreneur compettiion in alabama which also aims to startup the yunus university of ending poverty

shafqat links bangladeshi wizard technologists and is talking with brilliant/skoll on how ILABS can be extended across region given start made in Cambodia

apologies if too many choices mapped above - trying editorially to get both yunus and abed family members to open up all their knowledge in moocs in under one quarter is likely to mean that young people need to choose where they want to linkin and massively collaborate

there are also some fascinating green energy collaborations being written up for moocworld- i recall that when melissa launched social valuation student networking across region 4 years ago, a nobel laureate from uni of maryland declared inteerest in reconciling a green marshall plan- maryland also has some brilliant chinese students concerned with bottom up green energy networking as I found out at a recent brookings meeting on subject; the sainsbury supermarket philanthropy are a family friend back in london- with prince charles they run microenergy awards at http://ashden.org which needs to be turned into a mooc in my opinion - journalisticly, not too hard for them to do as their family are also major shareholders in The Economist; also interesting is that one of the 2 retiring student ceos of mit100k is passionate about green while the other is being headhunted by samsung out of south korea' and the theme of the yunus prize at mit this year is education
-as geo-serendipity would have it the other norman macrae in my family tree started life as a missionary in korea

Monday, November 5, 2012

bbc- why not world service of poverty museum reality games and info

back in 1984, norman solution for making sure enough family investors and youth chose heroic goals to-produce with being digitally connected was the bbc (the largest investment public have ever made in braidcasting) could run reality tv rograms -poverty museum apprentices before american pop singing idols- as well as prepare or truly celebrating millennnium goals

sources emerging on why not future of bbc -and indeed all major public media partners norman also expected to partner - back in 1984 india's dd having 2nd greatest reach

http://notimeleft.org  http://africa24tv.com various end the disaster movie from skoll/brilliant begun by inconveneint truth ....
=================================================================
transparency note -while normans family were only ispired by genius like dr yunus and sir fazle abed to start up Noramn Macrae Family Foundation in his last 2 years (2008 on)- Norman helped found WorldClassBrands on his formal retiremnt from The Economist in 1988 -for particularly young media men and women who believe media can improve the human lot - these days WCB is just one of NMFOUND projects
references brandmooc - wcb.tv  NMfound.net
===============================================================


To: Drum Beat and Soul Beat Africa Network participants
From: Warren Feek

Re: "Why Poverty?" Documentaries now available to view in full online

Greetings Chris

Poverty is perhaps the major development issue - one that certainly underpins most other development priorities.

Public debate is a key key element for effective change - and a major strategic principle of communication for social change.

The "Why Poverty?" documentary series - see http://www.comminit.com/whypoverty/category/sites/global/why-poverty - seeks to expand critical public review, engagement and debate on poverty.

In December 2012 those documentaries were broadcast in over 70 countries.

The "Why Poverty" folks are now making these available online, free, in full for all to access.

Within the summaries below you will find links to be to these 4 documentaries on line.

Please look for this hyper-linked text within the summaries linked below "THE DOCUMENTARIES ARE NOW AVAILABLE TO ALL. CLICK HERE TO ACCESS AND WATCH THE FULL…"

If you do view these documentaries please also complete the poll, share to your social networks and add your ratings and comments in the comments box at the bottom of the summary.

We will share the remaining four summaries soon.

DOCUMENTARIES

1. "Solar Mamas" - "a film about the heroic efforts of one woman as she overcomes significant difficulties to become a solar engineer".
http://www.comminit.com/whypoverty/content/solar-mamas-are-women-better-getting-out-poverty-men


2. Education! Education! - "In China, where an education was once valued and thought to be a way out of poverty, it is now questionable as a route to economic security."
http://www.comminit.com/whypoverty/content/education-education


3.Stealing Africa - How much profit is fair? - "Stealing Africa describes the tax system employed by multinational companies in Africa".
http://www.comminit.com/whypoverty/content/stealing-africa-how-much-profit-fair


4.Welcome to the World - "looks at the fact that every year 130 million babies are born, but their chances in life depend on the lottery of where, how and to whom they are born"
http://www.comminit.com/whypoverty/content/welcome-world-it-better-be-born-poor-or-die-poor


Chris - Thanks - please do review these important documentaries and share your critical review through the interactive processes available

Why Poverty?
http://www.comminit.com/whypoverty/


Warren

Warren Feek
Executive Director
The Communication Initiative

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

.Examples of multi-win and exponential sustaining models..
patient capital - ie where investors win-win with organisational purpose and 10-year exponential growth not quarterly extraction

100% social busienss model

51& social business model

conscious capitalism model

half-generation industry sector transformation models

a model for ensuring last gamechanger in industry is retained over time for radical win-win modeling even as there is either a luddite or speculator or fatally conceited academic's   war to prevent the innovation that most people want for the futire

..Quiz- What type of model to use ?
M-goals developing world
1  to aid place with half-generation project in areas with no infrastructure and no spare organisation
2 to resolve poverty in place wher big internal corporates have history of extraction
3 where the development challenge is not lack of wealth or lack of local orgainisiational capacity but a demographic who have been traeteted as underclass

In developed world
where elders have destroyed budgets so there are no prospects for youth to grow

where a whole industry chain needs replacing if country is to be sustainable for next generations

where collaboration knowledge networking could be 10 times more productive than siloised owneship of pieces of knowledge

nb problem will often involve many of these challenges at smae time as those with a bank of funds will not be able to choose only one type

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Borderless Youth Peacemakers

They will need to have cross-culturally correct access to curriculum vitae of history's greatest goodwill leaders and servants of humanity as well as 100 leaders of 2010s investing in youth co-productiions of what collaboration tech can make youth's most productive, sustainable and heroic time

Warning: if commentary below offends you - look at some of our other content as this piece is only important if you can feel comfy with it- the fact that reconciliation practices are not widely integrated into economics decision-makers recent behaviours scares me as a maths guy. To see what we mean from a socially grounded guy,- refer to harrison owen www.practiceofpeace.com  or if need be I am chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk

What Keynes General Theory does : explains connections between peace and system design, and warns youth to be vigilant against academic economics gurus whose potentially fatal vanities combined with advising big decision-makers compounds the world's greatest risks. That's why our list of conscious system leaders includes 8 economists or maths guys whose ideas had pro-youth impacts wherever they were used. When you choose local leaders that needs much more cross-cultural future history sense than we claim to have so we have kept to four we believe did more than any peoples had the right to expect from a human being. We have added 2 practice leaders Mother Theresa in healthcare and Montessori in schools - we realise there are many more practitioners to praise but those two have lifetimes we believe all youth ought to know. 
What Kaiser Wilhem did was be in the wrong place for carelessness that spun over half a century of wars out of Europe. He wasn't evil like a Hitler or a Stalin but he was situated at a time when many crises of the industrial age had been spinning and he was at the top of the whole house of cards. Ditto George Bush - everyone around in the 21st C today has peacemaking problems to solve that someone less careless than Bush might not have compounded. However if you side with George Bush and believe he had an impossible job then you are concluding that there are systems that are not too big to fail but too big to exist. And this is arguably our great post-industrial problem- today we are the first generation who can scale systems that rival nature's in planetary size. In doing that we run the risk that she will decide the human race is the next dodo. We need a majortiy of worldwide youth to be peacemakers - ie capable of cross-cultural celebration through every community. Interestingly the Lucknow City Montessori schooling system nurtures 50000 youth at any ine time being the only schooling system run by the Gandhi family www.cmseducation.org  with major peace prizes. It is a curriculum worth every youth connecting with


Discussion questions
what is phony capitalism
what in social or political context are examples of forbidden questions
to take a relatively trivial case of bush's destruction of freedom of speech begin with the dixie chicks case, how do you contrast it with Putin Pussy Riot case

from the point of view of statistics, the end 2000 election race between bush and gore was a dead heat- do you think world would be in a whollt different place if Gore had led USA into 21st C -discuss with someone who holds an opposite view as a person not as a member of either party  

footnote- more on Lucknow
The Largest school in terms of pupils is the City Montessori School in Lucknow, India, which had a record enrolment of 39,437 children on 9 August 2010 for the 2010-11 academic year. The school admits boys and girls between ages two and five, who can then continue their education to degree level. In 2002, it won the UNESCO Prize for peace way since Jagdish Gandhi and his wife Bharti first opened it in 1959 with a loan of just 300 rupees ($63, £22). Then it had a grand total of five pupils!


s.korea: Lim Globalizing Asia (2007)The negative impacts of top-down economic globalization have shown us that the structural adjustment programs end with social dissolution, political decay, and economic stagnation. Given this, this article suggests, tentatively, an alternative development paradigm for Globalizing Asia: the “stakeholder model” of capitalism. This model highlights the critical role of NGOs in committing themselves to the organized interests of the peoples public goods.

The Rise of Asia
:More than thirty years ago, Norman Macrae (1975), who was then the deputy editor of the Economist, talked about the coming of the “Pacific Century.” According to him, the world had gone through the “British Century” (1775-1875), the “American Century” (1875-1975), and now was entering the “Pacific Century” (1975-2075?). Asia was seen as a newly rising leader in the international political and economic system. Its extraordinary vitality has forced development scholars and practitioners to “ReOrient” the history of capitalist development in the region.

x

Friday, August 31, 2012

economics of manufacturing is dead, long live makers jobs

Its quite dismal how few economists have engaged consistently and pro-actively in this debate first opened up for worldwide interaction by dad's article in The Economist of 1982 (Intrapreneurial Now- extract below)- the time at which the majority of developed economies had become service economies and were heading towards knowledge economies as the only sustainable future   - help us discuss the opportunities of linking into this debate and the risks of not

.OPPORTUNITIES
the number 1 job creating alumni network in the world hubs round MIT in Boston - where makers.are still celebrated more than any other kind of student

(2012)innovations vol 7 issue 3 MIT press has a superb issue on Making in America
.RISKS
because most mindsets of economists - let alone the data they churn on the nightly news is stuck in the industrial era they bury so much political discourse  in  history so  failing to ever make a start on the journey  to create the next 3 billion jobs (if you want some details on how the EU in Brussels has failed on starting this for over 20 years now - the first time I was asked to research the impact of Brussels'  grants -on that occasion for whole of Portugal)..

economists stuck in industrial and tv ad age era  also fail to mediate - let alone value -million times more collaboration technology. Such economists are designing the exact opposite of what leaders of 2010s www.wholeplanet.tv = youths most productive decade need to mobilise inter-generational investment in
x

Thursday, August 23, 2012

extract from 1982 norman macrae INTRAPRENEURIAL NOW -more here 

INTRAPRENEURIAL NOW By: Norman Macrae
In a survey called "The coming entrepreneurial revolution" in The Economist of December 25, 1976, Norman Macrae argued that "methods of operation in business are going to change radically in the next few decades, in a direction opposite to that which most businessmen and nearly all politicians expect". The survey aroused enthusiasm and infuriation in almost equal measure, with invitations to lecture in more than 20 countries. Today Macrae updates his views on management methods that can make even lousy businesses profitable, and those that are driving tighter organizations to the wall.
Big goes bust
The 1976 survey argued that the world was probably drawing to the end of the era of big business corporations, because it would soon be seen to be nonsense to have hierarchical managements sitting in skyscraping offices trying to arrange how brainworkers (who in future would be most workers) could best use their imaginations. The main increases in employment would henceforth come either in small firms or in those bigger firms that managed to split themselves into smaller and smaller profit centres which would need to become more and more entrepreneurial.
As so often with supposedly controversial journalism, this proved to be an exercise in tentatively forecasting something that had already begun to happen a decade before, although it honestly was the opposite of what was being most widely reported at the time. In 1976 the textbooks being most assiduously fed to business courses were still Ken Galbraith's. "The new industrial state" and Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber's "Le definamericain", each of which was a bible to the advocates of industrial policies then subsidising British Steels, British Leylands and Projects Concorde into growing inefficiently larger and therefore irretrievably bust. These mergers were procreated on the thesis, explicitly stated by Ken Galbraith, that markets had been replaced by planning in favor of big technostructures so that large organizations like Chrysler or United States Steel did not lose money any more. "By all but the pathologically romantic", cried Ken Galbraith in 1967, "it is now recognized that this is not the age of the small man". He believed that the most economic size for business corporations in the future could be "'very, very large".
Shortly before these two books were -written and, instantly reached the best-selling lists, precisely the opposite trends had remorselessly begun to occur.
By 1965 small workplaces were already outperforming big ones on almost every count. Even in idealistic occupations, British hospitals with under 100 beds had between one half and two thirds the sickness rates among nurses as hospitals with more than 100 beds. I got my saddest quote of the late 1970s from the manager of a huge factory in Manchuria (though he could find echoes at Detroit, London Airport, Kama River): "During the period of disruption by the gang of four many workers came only on pay-days, some carrying placards saying I was a fly on top of putrescent meat. With 10,(XX) comrades here, it was impossible to check the absenteeism, pilfering and work-dodging that went on".
The biggest world political event since the 1960s is that communist countries have proved less able than free-market ones to escape from inefficient giantism in state factories and farms, so they are all going bust. In free-market countries managers are eventually more willing to lose face than their shareholders are to lose money, but tough problems are arising as even capitalist giants slim.
Since the mid-1960s the thousand biggest firms in the United States have as a group been sensibly reducing their labour forces, and more than the whole of the 15m private-sector jobs created since then have come in smaller firms-the majority of the new extra jobs at any one time being in firms less than five years old, even though more than half of new small American firms disappear out of business in their first five years. Although survey dates are jumbled, the accompanying inadequate charts suggest the same trend is accelerating even in manufacturing across the capitalist world. The present capitalist conjuncture is therefore one where the bigger and more stable firms are running down their employment, while more than the whole of net new employment is provided by small firms which, however, frequently go bust. Ow! And some thought needs to be given to ways of combining the advantages of small firms within big ones.
Make departments minifirms
In my 1976 survey I suggested there would be two trends-in the most conventional of which, greater reliance on subcontracting, I now think I was jejune. Subcontracting works only when the big firm has very tight quality control (as have Marks and Spencer, big Japanese companies towards tiny component makers and the superbly entrepreneurial Italian textile industry, see later). Subcontracting does not work when the big firm cannot measure what quality is, so that many management consultants, public relations firms etc. are about to disappear because they are high-cost ramps.
The second system I suggested in 1976 was that dynamic corporations of the future should simultaneously be trying several alternative ways of doing things in competition within themselves, becoming what have later been called confederations of "intrapreneurs". Two key concepts for efficient businesses here. First, the right size for each profit centre or intrapreneurial group-by which I mean a group of friends working together in daily productivity hunt towards the same objective-is very small, probably not more than 10 or 11 people, however dynamic your top management. Jesus Christ tried 12, and that proved one too many. Second, firms should not pay people for attendance at the workplace but should pay competing groups for modules of work done.
Thus, if you need a typing pool, I have suggested it might be best to set up several competing groups of Typists Intrapreneurial. You would offer an index linked contract to the group for a set period, specifying the services you wanted in return for a lump-sum monthly payment. The typists would apportion the work among themselves, devise their own flexitime, choose their own lifestyles, decide whether to replace a leaver by a full-timer or part-timer or whether to do her work and keep more money per head. They could also decide whether to tender for extra paid work from outside. In offices with tomorrow's equipment, there could, see later, be a lot.
A trivial example? By comparison with the gains that can be made in other fields it is. Yet the EEC court of auditors has recently ruled that the proper output for a typist is around 24 pages a day, and was upset that in some EEC departments the average, was only 12. In The Economist on a print-day Wednesday, when we are feeling rather participatory, a top secretary will type around 60 pages. If some EEC departments went over to that pace through being Typists Intrapreneurial, the stenographers could choose to work only one day a week for the same weekly wage as now, or by slowing recruitment they could work for up to five times their existing wages for the same present attendance at the office, or they could become five times more efficient. In practice, competition would ensure a mixture of the three, and the scope in most other parts of the business and bureaucratic jungle is much vaster.
This survey will explore that wider jungle, starting from the intrapreneurial mechanisms needed to breed new projects and going on through to those needed eventually to kill outdated ones (and make it participatory fun to send them to South Korea).
About 85% of all the industrial R & D expenditure in the United States takes place in 300 large corporations. It is done very wastefully.
Towards inventors intrapreneurial
About 70,000 patents are issued in the United States each year. Of these, maybe 60,000 are never heard of again, because most are horse manure. There will be some hidden pearls among it, and more could be found if patent offices were more intrapreneurial instead of often being inefficient government filing offices, some not even properly computerized. Governments should establish competing intrapreneurial teams in patent offices, compiling competing databases.
Of the perhaps 10,000 new patents a year round the world that are used, only about 10-20 a year are for what the co-inventor of the ubiquitous integrated circuit, Mr. Jack Kilby, calls "major" inventions things that change our lives. A list of the world's major inventions over the past 50 years shows that big organizations claim to have discovered only around a third of them, and some of their claims are fibs. More than two thirds have been discovered by individuals or small businesses.
The individual inventors' list of the past 50 years turns alphabetically from air conditioning, automatic transmissions and ballpoint pens, through jet engines and penicillin, to xerography and the zipper. The big companies' list runs more predictably through crease-resistant fabrics, float glass, synthetic detergents. Note how these fit with corporate objectives; "We are a big textile or soap company, so go for something capital-intensive". "We are Pilkington's Glass, and if we can beat plate glass by developing float glass, then every motor car in the world will eventually pay us a royalty, so it is worth carrying on with research into solving the last three problems in the way of float glass even through 12 consecutive years of negative cash flow."
Nobody should underestimate the tangible and intrapreneurial excitement among a tiny group of researchers when such a big firm's opportunity presents itself. Sir Alastair Pilkington has described how his research group into float glass was kept small enough to maintain total secrecy, so that experiments had been in progress for seven years before competitors knew of them; how several of his team members, after working impossibly long hours, were carried away on stretchers suffering from heat exhaustion; how 100,000 tons of float glass were made and broken before the great day which produced the first bit they could sell. But, to quote Jack Kilby again, each invention presents a profile of opportunities and requirements, while each company has its own profile of what constitutes to it an acceptable product. The probability that these two profile, will coincide in any given case is not very high.
The result is that many big companies' brilliant researchers are, in conditions of great secrecy, in their seventh consecutive year of smashing unusable float glass.
The Pinchot proposals