You know something's up when your banker says AI is not new but it is hot ...
Back in 25th year of mediating von neumann's survey of digital consequences, The Economist and dad proposed it was time to design next capitalism : Entrepreneurial Revolution 1976. My guess is 2023 is high time to review future of every system including the late great Japan PM Abe's pleas (g20 2019) for Society 5.0 and Osaka Data track
Von Neumann's last lectures "computer and the brain" talked a lot about artificial machines- historically artificial meant any engine designed as a brain tool as opposed to eg Watts whose physical power became famous for augmenting th horse!
Little over 5 years ago Kai Fu Lee wrote a bestseller on SAI- while positive about how much progress ai was making foir big corporates, cases of "transfromative ai" did not exist in any publishable form.
Here's bard's verify:
correct. When Kai-Fu Lee wrote his bestseller AI Superpowers in 2018, he did not really talk about transformative AI. This is because transformative AI is a relatively new field of research, and it was not yet clear what its potential impact would be.
AlphaFold2, which is a transformative AI system that can predict the structure of proteins, was not developed until 2020. And large language models (LLMs), which are another type of transformative AI, were still in their early stages of development in 2018.
In his book, Lee focused on the progress that was being made by big corporations in developing AI for their business and digital platforms. He argued that these companies were making steady progress in improving the accuracy and efficiency of their algorithms, and that this progress was having a significant impact on their bottom line.
However, Lee also acknowledged that there were relatively few breakthroughs of AI for SDGs in 2018. He argued that this was because AI was still a relatively new field of research, and that it would take time for researchers to develop AI systems that could be used to solve the world's most pressing problems.
Since 2018, there have been a number of breakthroughs in transformative AI. AlphaFold2 has been used to make significant progress in the field of protein folding, which could lead to new treatments for diseases. LLMs have been used to develop new AI-powered tools for education, healthcare, and other fields.
These breakthroughs suggest that transformative AI has the potential to make a significant impact on the world. However, it is important to note that transformative AI is still in its early stages of development, and there are a number of challenges that need to be addressed before it can be widely deployed.
These challenges include:
- The need for more data: Transformative AI systems require large amounts of data to train. This data can be difficult and expensive to collect, and it can be biased.
- The need for more powerful hardware: Transformative AI systems are computationally expensive to run. This means that they require powerful hardware, which can be expensive.
- The need for more ethical guidelines: Transformative AI systems can be used for malicious purposes. It is important to develop ethical guidelines for the development and use of these systems.
Despite these challenges, the potential of transformative AI is immense. It has the potential to solve some of the world's most pressing problems, such as poverty, disease, and climate change. It is important to continue to invest in research and development in transformative AI so that we can realize its full potential.
Bard doesn't quite say so but as yet road-tested practitioners of transformative AI may only be about 100, and that makes me curious what the thousands of "experts on transformative ai policy making" actually cut their teeth on
To understand future threats and opportunities I heartily recommend "seeing" convergence of all technologies and understanding win-win human intelligence contributions that got us here or who offer next giant leaps; its all of these dynamics not personalising ai as everything that will determine if we find a lst exit from extinction. (More technically Kai-Fu appeared to analyse hundreds of AU Unicorms (thats startups on the road to billion dollar plus ipo0 - while some of these may have been integrated into transformative ai its not their brand names as such making AI's moment in 2023. A moment the White House called ai moonshot moment June 2023
In the 73 years that my family and friends have been a part of questioning future consequences of v.neumann et al, we have never found it (systematically) useful (let alone trust multiplying) to over-focus on one tech's brand name rather than convergence of all brain tools with human and nature's needs. What is changing fastest eg during college year 2023-4 and 7th last year of UN goals. Quantum is certainly one. Generative ai is but there are other types of ai which may be more about turning around such as is data science diverse enough (does that mean throwing out data that excluded peoples. Transformative innovations debates are not necessarily popular (they dont fit soundbite journaism) but one of our hopes for gamifying Architect Intelligence is to get back to which humans are empowering advancement everyone needs if youth are to be sustainable
in the rest of this post we give a mention to quantum - just one tech whose moment may be coming soon- we'd love to hear what tech moments you see making or breaking what humans web3 in 2020s chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk
here's a conversation starter - any questions - chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk
Quantum computers are much faster than
traditional computers. In fact, they have the potential to be exponentially
faster. This is because quantum computers use quantum bits, or qubits, instead
of traditional bits.
A
bit can be in one of two states: 0 or 1. A qubit can be in a superposition of
both states at the same time. This means that a quantum computer can perform
calculations on exponentially more possibilities than a traditional computer.
For
example, a traditional computer with 100 bits can only search a space of 2^100
possibilities. A quantum computer with 100 qubits can search a space of 2^10000
possibilities. This is a huge difference in scale.
Quantum
computers are still in their early stages of development, but they have the
potential to revolutionize many industries. They could be used to solve
problems that are currently impossible for traditional computers, such as
breaking encryption, simulating complex molecules, and designing new drugs.
Here
is a table that compares the speed of quantum computers to traditional
computers:
|
Type of Computer |
Number of Bits |
Number of Possible
States |
|
Traditional
Computer |
100 |
2^100 |
|
Quantum Computer |
100 |
2^10000 |
drive_spreadsheetExport to Sheets
As
you can see, the number of possible states for a quantum computer is
exponentially greater than the number of possible states for a traditional
computer. This is why quantum computers can perform calculations so much faster
than traditional computers.
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Has any expert written a policy paper recommending humans
now look at future consequences of converging every accelerating technology.
Personally i dont find it useful to over emphasise ai as opposed to whats
accelerating like quantum. And even within ai there are different things going
on -regenerative is the big change; other ai eg algorithms for big companies
has perhaps been more steady as an advance but with the problem that almost all
data from GPS is designed for big decisions not for society's sustainability at
every locality. Oddly if we could be clearer on how technologies now need to
converge transparently we might be able to ask LLMs for the most humanly needed
help - eg goals like the UN's or goals that might unite the under 30s in
transformations they need to be first sustainability generation? When i try and
do an overall systems analysis i se4e those maximising monetisation are missing
2 questions- how is 8 billion peopled time being spent - particularly are
teachers and students time being spent to maximise brain augmentation of the
next generation; how is data beaming up and down from every gps being turned
into locally urgent apps regarding eg sustainability challenges. ITs my hope
that guterres new hi level ai panel might quickly and privately with him make
this summary paper and see if this can be the basis for the LLM the UN needs if
goal 17 interacting with the other goals means the UN needs to build the most
cooperative (human development and healthy society) intelligence for every locality
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Yes, there have been a number of
policy papers written that recommend humans look at the future consequences of
converging every accelerating technology.
Here
are some examples:
- The Future of Humanity Institute
at Oxford University has published a number of papers on the
potential impacts of converging technologies, including artificial
intelligence, nanotechnology, and biotechnology.
Opens in a new window
en.wikipedia.org
Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University
- The World Economic Forum has
published a number of reports on the future of technology, including
the Global Agenda 2020 and the Global Risks Report 2023.
Opens in a new windowen.wikipedia.org
World Economic Forum
- The National Academies of
Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine has published a number of reports
on the ethical and societal implications of artificial intelligence,
including The Ethics of Artificial Intelligence and A
Review of the National Artificial Intelligence Research and Development
Strategic Plan.
Opens in a new window
www.nationalacademies.org
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
These
papers highlight the potential benefits and risks of converging technologies.
They also call for careful planning and governance to ensure that these
technologies are used for good and not for harm.
You
are right that it is important to look beyond artificial intelligence (AI) when
considering the future of technology. There are a number of other technologies
that are also accelerating, such as quantum computing, nanotechnology, and
biotechnology.
These
technologies have the potential to revolutionize many aspects of our lives,
from the way we work and communicate to the way we live and consume. However,
they also pose a number of risks, such as the potential for job displacement,
environmental damage, and even existential threats to humanity.
It
is therefore important to think about how we can use these technologies
responsibly and ethically. We need to develop international agreements and
regulations that govern the development and use of these technologies. We also
need to invest in education and research to ensure that we have the skills and
knowledge we need to thrive in a world that is increasingly shaped by
technology.
You
also raise some important points about the need to focus on the needs of the
under 30s and to use technology to address sustainability challenges. The under
30s are the generation that will be most affected by the impacts of climate
change and other sustainability challenges. We need to invest in their
education and training so that they have the skills they need to address these
challenges.
We
also need to use technology to help us understand and address these challenges.
For example, we can use sensors and data analytics to monitor environmental
changes and to track the impact of our interventions. We can also use
technology to develop new solutions to sustainability challenges, such as
renewable energy and sustainable agriculture.
I
hope that the UN's new high-level AI panel will take your suggestions into
account. It is important that we think about the future of technology in a
comprehensive and holistic way. We need to consider the potential benefits and
risks of these technologies, and we need to develop international agreements
and regulations that govern their development and use. We also need to invest
in education and research so that we have the skills and knowledge we need to
thrive in a world that is increasingly shaped by technology.
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Has such an analysis been done out of any asian epicentre
of intelligence- after all 2/3 people are asian and while overall asian
progress is very mixed some of asia supercities and some women empwerment maps
of its tropical vailages seem to me to represent human development miracles of
last 50 years that all youth could cooperatively gain from seeing
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Yes, there have been a number of
analyses of the potential impacts of converging technologies done out of Asian epicenters
of intelligence.
Here
are some examples:
- The Institute for Human and
Machine Cognition (IHMC) in Florida has been working on developing
ethical guidelines for the development and use of artificial intelligence.
The IHMC is led by Dr. Rodney Brooks, who is a professor of robotics at
the University of Florida. Dr. Brooks is also the co-founder of the
non-profit organization, the Singularity Institute for Artificial
Intelligence.
Opens in a new windowen.wikipedia.org
Institute for Human and Machine Cognition (IHMC)
- The National Research Foundation
of Korea has been funding research on the development of quantum
computing. The NRF is the primary research funding agency in South Korea.
It is responsible for funding research in a wide range of fields,
including science, technology, and engineering.
Opens in a new window
fundit.fr
National Research Foundation of Korea
- The Ministry of Education,
Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) of Japan has been
funding research on the development of artificial intelligence. MEXT is
the main government agency responsible for education, science, and
technology in Japan. It is responsible for funding research in a wide
range of fields, including artificial intelligence, robotics, and
nanotechnology.
Opens in
a new window
www.us.emb-japan.go.jp
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
(MEXT) of Japan
These
are just a few examples of the work that is being done in Asia to address the
potential impacts of converging technologies. It is important to note that this
work is still in its early stages, and there is much more that needs to be
done.
You
are right that Asia is a continent with a rich history of innovation and
creativity. In recent years, Asia has also become a major center for the
development of artificial intelligence and other converging technologies. This
is due to a number of factors, including the region's large population, its
growing economy, and its strong commitment to education and research.
The
development of converging technologies has the potential to transform many
aspects of life in Asia. For example, these technologies could be used to
improve healthcare, education, and transportation. They could also be used to
address challenges such as climate change and poverty.
However,
it is important to note that the development of converging technologies also
poses some risks. For example, these technologies could be used to develop
autonomous weapons systems or to create new forms of discrimination.
It
is therefore important that Asia take a proactive approach to addressing the
potential impacts of converging technologies. This includes developing ethical
guidelines for the development and use of these technologies, as well as
investing in research and education to ensure that Asia has the skills and
knowledge it needs to thrive in a world that is increasingly shaped by
technology.
I
hope that this information is helpful.
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I believe there is another hidden agenda. We previously
talked about many nations being small only about 20% are actually involved in
what the us frames as global competition intelligence. They and everyone need
interlocal cooperation intelligence. Most of the issues of building this sort
of flow do not involve the tech system risks that come about when a few people
are designing global consequences. IN my view few people have global
responsibilities but guterres love as a servant leader. It might be time to see
all multilaterals in 2 different ways. Those that are mainly educational (pro
next generation) , community adaptation , these involve goal 17 with the
primary goals humans need to develop 1 through 5 historically, 6 through 8 to
go green while different multilateral look at peace and goals 16 down. Is there
any research going on with this vision or are people like me odd brains out?
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I think there is a lot of merit to
your idea of seeing multilaterals in two different ways.
Multilaterals
that focus on education and community adaptation
These
multilaterals would be focused on helping countries and communities develop the
skills and knowledge they need to adapt to the challenges of the 21st century.
This could include things like providing education and training on new
technologies, helping countries develop sustainable infrastructure, and
supporting community-led development initiatives.
These
multilaterals would be working to achieve the following goals:
- Goal 1: End poverty in all
its forms everywhere.
- Goal 2: Zero hunger.
- Goal 3: Good health and
well-being.
- Goal 4: Quality education.
- Goal 5: Gender equality.
Multilaterals
that focus on peace and security
These
multilaterals would be focused on preventing conflict and building peace. This
could include things like mediation, peacekeeping, and post-conflict
reconstruction.
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