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1 worst thing gov can do is compound bad infrastructure- back in 1920! us jones bill has resulted in at least 80 years of us failing to integrate superport into (trains roads planes digital highways) -how can public servants justify this law that destroys opportunities for poverty 99% to keep less 1% lobby happy
2 in intelligence age local optimisation of education in ai world should be every democratic govs top priority- again usa is a worst case example
3 empowering as much local health actions as possible is 3rd great use of ai that usa hasnt begun to celebrate
4 why not silicon valley everywhere -
see our 1982 paper (and far east coastal supply chains everywhere)- why hasn't everywhere understood west coast usa combined with far east advanced manufacturing supply chains
more coming soon
Indermit Gill, Chief Economist World Bank, so here are 46: my impressions of Susan's talk on AI. Uh the first impression that I got was that
governments will always be playing catchup. they will be slow. so for example she said that AI will change the costs of digitization and governments will be slower in realizing the benefits that can come from AI for providing services. The second for example she said was AI will change the distribution of of activity and of profits and of wage losses and wage gains and governments will be slow in adopting industrial and competition policy and helping workers adjust and move. then the other thing that struck me as she was talking was that may may actually lull you into a slower response than will be needed because of AI, right? Uh so AI will be coming faster, the waves are going to be higher and they're going to be coming at a faster speed too. So that's the first impression that I got. The second impression that I got from what she said was that it seems that economists and other analysts will be slower in understanding the effects of AI. So we'll actually won't be able to help governments nearly as much as we might have in the past because she mentioned about the nature of the technology is such that feedback loops abound are hard to model that you don't have well developed general equilibrium models for these kind of technologies. and you have to get into uh things like whether or not the distribution effects should be included and whether or not the cost reductions are passed on to consumers. So all of these things all of these things will make it actually very difficult. There'll be one more thing that will that will actually present a challenge to economists which is a divergence between what is good for a firm and what is good for a country right and I'll end with an anecdote that I heard when I was in India and it it had to do with a food delivery service and it's called Zumato I think and what Zumato was saying was that or people from Zumato were saying that that that when they deliver services. if you have to have a human intervention, it costs about 70 rupees more and that human intervention for any transaction is generally provided by a college educated worker. but now what they were doing was because of cost and because of competitive pressures uh they found that they had to sort of move to AI. Now if you move to AI, you're replacing that college worker because AI comes in when you need a human intervention instead of that. So AI costs a lot less about onetenth less than what that college worker would cost. But the thing is that while the college worker got a wage and as a result in this case AI would make uh would actually cut that kind of employment. That's one shot. The second shot was that that India would actually have a transfer because it would have to pay a royalty to a foreign AI company. And the reason why they told us this was because they said that we in our last world development report in the 2024 world development report we were saying that what countries like India should be doing is trying not to develop technologies of their own but to bring them in from outside and what these people were saying was this is going to become very very costly unless you develop the technologies and own the intellectual property to them you're going to end up with huge uh uh huge losses. So when Susan said that one has to sort of think about what's good for the firm which is Zomato and what is good for India is suddenly different but those were my quick reactions. There were two or three other things that struck me as she was talking. One of them was and these are scary thoughts. one thing was that I got a sense from what you were saying was that AI is making war cheap to start So you'll probably get more wars. The second one she said was that uh the outcome might be that that uh these AI benefits show up in welfare gains rather than productivity. and that perhaps what AI doing for software AI is doing for software what the CD or the DVD or uh music and things like that is actually that it to democratize that system. But those are my I think the main thing that I thought was we seem to be very unprepared for this.............
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