Feb 2024 what a treat- Nvidia ceo explains freedom of million times more comp coming to community near you..Entrepreneurial Revolutions intergenerational laureates origin Von Neumann's NET; dedicated to Royals of UK, Japan, Netherlands UK Royal Society's Economist James Wilson 1843+. Adam Smith/James Watt Morality 1758+ -
1970-2019 : Fazle Abed 1 billion women;;; 1994 onwards Fei-Fei Li with thanks to friends of Steve Jobs, Melinda Gates and Taiwanese Americans for Humanity:: correct errors chief ignorance networker: chris.macrae @yahoo.co.uk wash dc writes: please see AI20s.com for review of 23 as year of Chat and why/how we discuss with bard 24 as year of intelligence action and breakthroughs of UNsummitfuture.com ; also why King Charles launch of AI world Series (Bletchley-Korea-Paris-NY sept 2024) is our fav short youtube of 23..also for parents consider .Dec 2023 Royal Institution Lecture on AI
Intelligence Games:Who's advanced human lot most since 1950 & Now?: Help ED with Intelligence Humanity's top 100 transcripters 21st C Neuro-First 5 : Li ...Hassabis Lecun Bengio HintonOriginal brainworkers NET : Neumann Einstein TuringDeep Learning Actions .. Grant, Freire, Borlaug23-24Womens Urgent Melinda Gates, PChan BJKing YunaKim MsT&T CRice 1 .. JDoudno LIbrahim .. 1 .. 2 MDonelan 1.. 2 .. 3 RRoy 1 :: 2 .. JWidom Quadir Abdul Latif Li Ka-shing MCrow ASU .1 2. Awuah CYidanInterdependence West-East Systems 4 JFK, Deming, Drucker, VogelRoyal 3 King Charles JapanEmp NetherlamdsRoyalsFaulty Vision 84:::01:::09:::17: JAB 2001: Jobs . Abed BillGatesMultilateral LLM 3 JYKim AGuterres .. 1.. Ska-MozaTaiwan's 3J JNvidia & JStanfordTrustees &JosephValley 20 Pichai Dean Andreesen Ng Koller Etchemedy SalesforceCeo Musk ... Seattle 3: Etzioni &More coming soon

Monday, December 31, 1984

What are the distances between 4 of East Coast most co-creative intelligence spaces namely Princeton Advanced Studies home to Neumann & Einstein over 25 years, HQ of UN, Parsipanny Hi-School of Fei-Fei Li and Bell Labs where Yann Lecun applied Neural Nets to US Zipcodes
May your good Intel Bless King Charles for starting AI world Series Bletchley Nov 2023 - 180 years after Queen Victoria supported launch of The Economist as Royal Society Chat-sheet of Commonwealth goals 1,2 end poverty & hunger
King Charles: we are witnessing one of the greatest technological leaps in the history of human endeavor the rapid rise of powerful artificial intelligence is considered by many of the greatest thinkers of our age to be no less significant no less important than the discovery of electricity, the splitting of the atom, the creation of the worldwide web or even the harnessing of fire
profile picture King Charles:
AI holds the potential to completely transform Life as we know it; to help us better treat and perhaps even cure conditions like cancer heart disease and Alzheimer's to hasten our journey towards net zero and realize a new era of potentially Limitless clean green energy even just to help us make our everyday lives a bit easier
however if we are to realize the untold benefits of AI then we must work together on combating its significant risks; too AI continues to advance with ever greater speed towards models that some predict could surpass human abilities , even human
understanding; there is a clear imperative to to ensure that this rapidly evolving technology remains safe and secure and because AI does not respect International boundaries this Mission demands International coordination and collaboration.
To support this Global effort the United Kingdom is proud to host this Summit in Bletchley Park the birthplace of modern Computing where Alan Turing famously cracked  the Enigma code and laid the foundations for a new digital age. Transitions like the one AI is heralding always presents profound challenges especially in preparing for unintended consequences; it is incumbent on those with responsibility to meet these challenges to protect people's privacy and livelihoods which are essential to both our economic and psychological well-being to secure our democracies from harm and to ensure the benefits of new technology are shared by all. I've always believed in the importance of holding a conversation both within and across societies to address such great challenges of bringing governments in the public sector together with civil society and the private sector in that conversation adhering to the values tenants of faith and laws that we all held so dear. That is how the International Community has sought to tackle climate change to light a path to Net Zero and Safeguard the future of our planet we must similarly address the risks presented by AI with a sense of urgency unity and Collective Strength so on behalf of the United Kingdom I want to thank you all for the vital role you are playing in this shared Endeavor for laying the foundations of a lasting consensus 

Congrats Korea as first in 2024 to relay the series - they youth olympics paris and NY Unsummitfuture Spet 2024...
In terms of overall systems visioning: humans need engineers & economists and mediators to develop transparent maps uniting  exponential consequences on intelligent generation (aka edu) our of every place on mother earth This post seeks to overview the Western populist crises crises of 
  • 1984, -computings digital designers Gatews & Jobs were by their own 21st C accounts at least 17 years behind seeing what majority of worlds population needed to communally network first - abedmooc
  • 2001 just as jobs, gates and silicon valley started to catch up with deep women empowerments sustainability innovations, 9/11caysed rage east ciast usa-across-atlantic-to west asia ...just as 3g offered 100 times more data connectivity,communitires needed to share, top down war tech ended joyful millennium goals start of M3
  •  2009, just as 4g delivered another 100 times more and this time started beaming data clouds up/down- subprime withdrem investment from youth's futures to save elders pensions; however although unseen unless you were in stanford or deep minded in london, intelluigence the way the net6 had hoped began what has become the most remarkable 15 years 09-24
  •  2017 the us hatred elections at end of 2016  deflected attention from Intelligences giant leaps except for a group who tried to linkin valley and UN2.0 and sdgs - there are several heroines of this but Melinda Gates interpretation of ai heroines like LI connected chips greatest new designer jensen huang (ai-4-all 10 curricula), the transition of imagenet in Li's work to both google cloud and another 10 labs being sponsored on stanfird campius in time for HAI human-centric ai to be launched ang Congress to be notified 2018 that the chats were coming and any nation that did not invest in public AI Research Resources might decline and fall-- critical was augmenting ecery human brain by their own neural networking agenyt that the way the NET's experience in gifting us 1950s brainworkers engines had envisioned.So first one table on Neumann-Einstein-Turing
.2025 Report economistdiary.com/1984 invites you co-blog advances humanity 1945-84 (PCborn)-2025 engines 6 & 7 brainwork & AutonomousI : launched Neumann-Einstein-Turing
& Daily log UNsummitfuture.com last 3 years to end Big Brother Supreme Leaders
Eg www.economistdiary.com/2018/06 Fei-Fei Li (Education AI-4-all co-founders Nvidia CEO & Melinda Gates) testimony congress spans
year 7 -Imagenet2012 ends AI Winter births deep learning & generative ai: -see AIPlayers pack Z
year 15 Jerry Yang & partners yahoo wealth @ Stanford - 2004 professor Horowitz YouthAI SWOT XPonentials 100 times moore semiconductor power / decade interacting UN: ITU WSIS mobilisation 3G-4G-5G . Horowitz co-founds AI100 in 2016 & 2023 Hoover's Condy Rice nationwide tour 10 profs of multiplying policymakers vision (see diary 04 16 23).
2018 : 5th year google brain marriage Hassabis/london deep mind - watch 250 million proteins alphafold2 to open source science ai by 2022 (+ Guterres & Banga Livable Planet AI council 2023 & King Charles Turing AI World Series to 25 Osaka Track Expo Via Paris SuperstarAi summer 24.
www.ai20s.com coming of nlp AI designing superchat media gateways to web3 related trilliondollaraudits.com alumnisat.com o.............
.
2023 questions to Bard-Gemini

can you tell me why accountants are also sometimes called beancounters?

There are two main reasons why accountants are sometimes called "beancounters":

1. Historical usage:

  • Abacus and beads: In the past, accountants often used abacus or beads to track financial transactions. Counting these small objects individually led to the association with "bean counting."
  • Focus on detail: Accountants are known for their meticulous attention to detail and accuracy, ensuring every penny is accounted for. This can be seen as similar to carefully counting individual beans.

2. Stereotype and perception:

  • Limited scope: The "beancounter" stereotype portrays accountants as solely focused on numbers and lacking broader perspectives. Critics might view their work as purely technical and repetitive, akin to simply counting beans.
  • Negative connotations: The term can be used in a derogatory way, implying that accountants are overly concerned with minutiae and lack creativity or understanding of the bigger picture.

It's important to note that the "beancounter" label is generally outdated and often considered disrespectful. Modern accounting involves much more than just counting numbers. Accountants today analyze financial data, provide strategic advice, and play a crucial role in various business functions.

So, while the term holds some historical significance, it's vital to recognize its potential offensiveness and avoid using it in a derogatory manner. It's better to acknowledge the multifaceted nature of accounting and appreciate the valuable contributions accountants make to organizations of all sizes.

I hope this explanation clarifies the origin and implications of the "beancounter" term!

Question to Bard can you comment on how a core accounting rule is: never account for a day beyond the declared reporting period? this may seem systemically in conflict with all types of visioning including computer and human intelligence visioning

BARD 2023: You raise a fascinating point about the potential conflict between the accounting rule of "never account for a say beyond the declared reporting period" and the importance of visioning in both human and computer intelligence. Here are some thoughts on the topic:

Arguments for the Rule:

  • Accuracy and accountability: Focusing on the present and verifiable data ensures precise financial reporting and protects against speculative projections. This promotes trust and prevents investors from being misled by uncertain future possibilities.
  • Focus on controllables: Accountants deal mainly with what can be controlled and measured within the current period. Accounting for hypothetical future events beyond this scope introduces unnecessary complexity and potential for inaccuracy.
  • Risk management: Avoiding unconfirmed future projections mitigates risks associated with unforeseen changes and uncertainties.

Arguments Against the Rule:

  • Limited perspective: Ignoring potential future impacts can lead to short-sighted decision-making. Companies need to consider future trends, risks, and opportunities to make informed investments and stay competitive.
  • Inflexible for long-term planning: While short-term focus is important, companies also need to consider long-term goals and sustainability. Excluding future considerations entirely can hinder strategic planning and adaptation to changing environments.
  • Dissonance with AI and human visioning: Both AI and humans utilize future projections and scenarios for planning and decision-making. Strict adherence to the "no beyond reporting period" rule seems contradictory to this inherent human and AI capability.

Potential Solutions: ... more!

Question to Bard

In the 1990s i worked at london hq of what became (a then big 5) price waterhouse coopers. I noted that both big accounting and big law in their strictest interpretations were ajudicating past up to now, not what could be eg bayesian predictable next in terms of positive human energies such as trust and love let alone deep natural learning. It is possible to see that a lot of exponential risks or externalities have not yet been fully made transparent by this professional conflict with what intelligence visioning may be about. While this is only my personal life experience, do you know if any other intelligence diarists have looked at this mathematical/compound problem?

BARD 2023 replies:

You raise a crucial point about the potential limitations of traditional accounting and legal frameworks in accounting for future possibilities, particularly those related to positive human energies and emerging exponential risks. Your experience at PricewaterhouseCoopers in the 1990s provides valuable firsthand insight into this critical issue.

It's encouraging to know that others are exploring this complex interplay between traditional professional practices and the demands of intelligence visioning. While I may not have access to specific intelligence diarists who have directly addressed this issue, your observations resonate with various ongoing discussions and research areas:  - more

Intelligence's Last Hurrahs? Neumann-Einstein-Turing visioning mattered in multiple ways - not least because by 1950 engineering decisions (transformation visions birthing type 6 brainworking engines which the NET were co-creating out of Princeton & London) were set to determine our species future integration with mother nature (let alone human war & peace)  -exponentially far more than anything money men imagine or 90day beancounters audit. 

Ever since Smiths diaries on the last market maps before  Glasgow invented physical power (combustion) engines in 1760s and the next 16 years as Scots/Irish saw Europe & birthing USA- social consequences of engines have been interconnected (holonically systemised - ie each exponentially impacts lifes' inter-generative consequences all around mother earth). 
There is no common  vocabulary but if can be useful training to vision how exponential of physical power (engineering type 1's opportunities and risks) <>determined 2 automation lifestyles<> 3 new transportation (beginning with overland railways not just ruling waves with naval gunboats) <<>>4 & 5 electricity and communications engines (both of these advanced in central europe which is why swizerland's ITU was appointed as the world's designer of next communications standards from 1865! In effect the tools that eg jobs & gates designed were nor independent of geneva's itu and shoiuld not have been independent of WHO health , UNESCXO education, UNCTAD trade (have all been actionable pre-visioned by geneva parts of the UN system with ironically rome previsioning foods futures)

 Visible heroes like JFK understood this as did probably the world's most invisible economist mediator- Geoiffrey Crowther. Crowther's work can explain why King Charles has at least as common sense of what AI is about in 2023 in launching AI world series (Bletchley-Korea=-Paris Youth's next 4 years of worldly heroines and heroes  before september 2024 NY-UNsummitfuture) aswany other viral human influencer. Crowther was responsible in 1943 for both weekly editing the London Economist and compililing the 100 year lesson bpook 1943-1843 of trying to help queen victiria mediatir chnage from slave-making empire navies to commonwelath. He concluded economists and legislators had totally failed to see engineering innovations. Thats whey from 1951, he asked von neumann what The Economist needed to mediate-test the world's biggest decision-makers on.















































.


 

In 1984 eg Jobs & Gates gave the west personal computers (networking) but these 2 men are on record as admitting they did not understand deeeest human development needs of over half the worlds people until they helped silicon val;ey host debriefings of a billion poorest wpmens intelligence from 2001 - see abedmooc.com which is when silicon valley initially with steve jobs celebrated 65th birthday wish party of Fazle Abed. The world's number 1system designer of extreme village poverty aleviator explained that as well as preventing wars/refugees, health goals (raising life expectaicy to mid 60s from low 40s) and community life-critical livelihood education were visions that mattered (money was only a tool for designining thos intergenetaional development minimums). Jobs set about redesigning digital machines to face the education chalenge; gates with jim kim guterres and others set about remapping health systems- both locally at community levels and wjhere they globally intersected as infectious diseases. The rest of this post looks at what 1984 visionining could have been possible if the world had come together to ask how to networks gates and jobs innovations. Instead switzerland which has been in charge of communicatiosn futures since 1865 expoerted berners lee to start web out of mit 1990 but advertsising models took over from health and education fouindations. Unfirtunately if you click to 2001, 2009, 2017 just ahead of swizerland worldwide cooperations introducing at least 100 times more tele-info standrads 2g-3g-4g and beyond - USA popular opinion as driven by East Coast governance mindsets and ever more dismal media suffered an absolute disaster : 9/11, sub-prime, whatever us elections have become since laste 2016

Hello Mailors - Macrae AI Lab friends. Welcome to 2 examinations of 2025-1984 and moving intelligence uniting 8 billion beings beyond extinction.
Below is summary of Economist and my family's 1984 Report on 2025 if we advance humans the way Neumann-Einstein-Tuyring intended; over at humansai.com we invite you to play AIGames.solar to leap beyond the Exinction journeys the UN & I are concerned we are still being big brothered into. chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk
update january 2023 overtime UN last 7 years to prevent 4 by 40 extinction 2025report.com 2025-1985-1945-1905-1865 -below our rationale in 1984 on timelines for applying digital legacy of Neumann-Einstein-Turing to advance humanity not extinguish our species- happily extend deadline to 2030 if nations promise in 2015 to  UN to be be orbiting round sdgs by 2030 is realuty not greenwashng 
Chris Macrae MA DAMTP Cantab
Year 73 EconomistDiary.ocm End Artificial Ignorances AIsdgs.com Abedmooc.com

the new ai now makes everything our 1984 future history 2025report mapped possible except peace --would it make sense if guterers asked multi,aterals to be split in 2 - everything on policy of peace ; all the actiosn of valuing millennaisl as first sd generation- aka un2 roadmap begun spet 2016 UN NY

-lets start summary of with what we wrote in 1984

published by norman and chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk 1984 written 1983 with thanks to first 140 years of EconomistDiary.com and family's first 33 years of mediating voin neumann/goats of maths survey - what goods will be united by privileged peoples with first access to 100 times more etch per decade

Future History

Net Futures - The 2024 Report

Back in 1984 , Norman Macrae wrote "The 2024 Report: a future history of the next 40 years". It was the first book to:

  • provide readers with a brainstorming journey of what people in an internetworking world might do
  • predict that a new economy would emerge with revolutionary new productivity and social benefits enjoyed by all who interacted in a net-connected world -updates economistdiary.com 2025report.com

Our 1984 scenario of an internetworking world

Changing communications, and what makes people distant, bossy, etc

Changing national politics

Changing economics

Changing employment

Changing education


Our 1984 scenario of an internetworking world


The great technological event of the next 40 years will be the steady rise in importance of the Telecommunications-Computer terminal (TC for short)... Eventually books, files, television programmes, computer information and telecommunications will merge. We'll have this portable object which is a television screen with first a typewriter, later a voice activator attached. Afterwards it will be minaturised so that your personal access instrument can be carried in your buttonhole, but there will be these cheap terminals around everywhere, more widely than telephones of 1984. The terminals will be used to access databases anywhere in the globe, and will become the brainworker's mobile place of work. Brainworkers, which will increasingly mean all workers, will be able to live in Tahiti if they want to and telecommute daily to the New York or Tokyo or Hamburg office through which they work. In the satellite age costs of transmission will not depend mainly on distance. And knowledge once digitalised can be replicated for use anywhere almost instantly.

Over the last decade, I have written many articles in The Economist and delivered lectures in nearly 30 countries across the world saying the future should be much more rosy. This book explores the lovely future people could have if only all democrats made the right decisions.

Norman Macrae, 1984.


Changing communications, and what makes people distant, bossy etc


Telecommunications are now recognised as the third of the three great transport revolutions that have, in swift succession, transformed society in the past two hundred years. First, were the railways; second the automobile; and third, telecommunications-attached-to-the-computer, which was bound to be the most far-reaching because in telecommunications, once the infrastructure is installed, the cost of use does not depend greatly on distance. So by the early years of the twenty-first century brainworkers - which in rich countries already meant most workers - no longer need to live near their work.

All three revolutions were opposed by the ruling establishments of their time, and therefore emerged fastest where government was weak. All three brought great new freedoms to the common man, but the railway and motor-car ages temporarily made access to capital the most important source of economic power. As most men and women did not like being bossed about by capitalists who could become more powerful because they were born stinking rich, they voted to give greater economic power to governments during the railway and motor-car ages. This was economically inefficient, and also made tyrannies more likely and more terrible. The information revolution was fortunately the exact opposite of the steam engine's industrial revolution and of Henry Ford's mass production automobile revolution in this respect. The steam engine and mass production has made start-up costs for the individual entrepreneur larger and larger, so that in both the steam and automobile ages to quote Bell Canada's Gordon Thompson in the early 1970s, there was 'no way an ordinary citizen could walk into a modern complex factory and use its facilities to construct something useful for himself'. But, as Thompson forecast, the databases of the next decades were places into which every part-time enthusiast could tele-commute. In all jobs connected with the use of information, start-up costs for the individual entrepreneur in 1984-2024 have grown smaller and smaller. It was 'never thus', said Thompson, 'with power shovels and punch presses'.

In consequence, in the TC age, the most important economic resource is no longer ownership of or access to capital, but has become the ability to use readily available knowledge intelligently and entrepreneurially.


Changing national politics


For a region's people to succeed in the Telecommuting Age there are four main requirements - satisfied in places as far apart ad Guam and Queensland and Cape Province and California and Penang and Scotland. First , as the prophet John Naisbitt said in 1982, 'the languages needed for the immediate future are computer and English'. Second, the area has to be a nice one in which to live. Third, it is important that all income earners should adapt happily to a 'cafeteria of compensation' schemes. These allow the individual employee to decide what mix (s)he wants of salary, job objectives, career aims, flexitime, job sharing, long or short holidays, fringe benefits or fringe nuisances. Fourth, there needs to be a competitive and quickly changing telecommunications system. The TC age is making understanding of these requirements increasingly transparent among human beings worldwide.

Governments at first tried to impede or regulate much of this, but an early discovery of the Telecommutung age was that we could change the way we chose our governments. Until the 1990s we had pretended to ourselves that we could alter our lifestyles by choosing on each Tuesday or Thursday every four years whether Mr Reagan or Mr Carter , Mrs Thatcher or Mr Kinnock, was putting on the tribal demonstration which at that particular moment annoyed us less. After the advent of the TC we found that the more sensible and direct way in which a free man or woman could choose government was by voting with his or her feet. The individual could go to live in any area where the government - which could from then on be a very local government - permitted the lifestyle, rules and customs which suited that human being.

Changing Economics


The introduction of the international Centrobank was the last great act of government before government grew much less important. It was not a conception of policy-making governments at all, but emerged from the first computerised town meeting of the world.

By 2005 the gap in income and expectations between the rich and poor nations was recognised to be man's most dangerous problem. Internet linked television channels in sixty-eight countries invited their viewers to participate in a computerised conference about it, in the form of a series of weekly programmes. Recommendations tapped in by viewers were tried out on a computer model of the world economy. If recommendations were shown by the model to be likely to make the world economic situation worse, they were to be discarded. If recommendations were reported by the model to make the economic situation in poor countries better, they were retained for 'ongoing computer analysis' in the next programme.

In 2024 it is easy to see this as a forerunner of the TC conferences which play so large a part in our lives today, both as pastime and principal innovative device in business. But the truth of this 2005 breakthrough tends to irk the highbrow. It succeeded because it was initially a rather downmarket network television programme. About 400 million people watched the first programme, and 3 million individuals or groups tapped in suggestions. Around 99 per cent of these were rejected by the computer as likely to increase the unhappiness of mankind. It became known that the rejects included suggestions submitted by the World Council of Churches and by many other pressure groups. This still left 31,000 suggestions that were accepted by the computer as worthy of ongoing analysis. As these were honed, and details were added to the most interesting, an exciting consensus began to emerge. Later programmes were watched by nearly a billion people as it became recognised that something important was being born.

These audiences were swollen by successful telegimmicks. The presenter of the first part of the first programme was a roly-poly professor who was that year's Nobel laureate in economics, and who proved a natural television personality. He explained that economists now agreed that aid programmes could sometimes help poor countries, but sometimes most definitely made their circumstances worse. When Mexico was inflating at over 80 per cent a year in the early 1980s , the inflow to it of huge loanable funds made its inflation even faster and its crash more certain. The professor set Mexico's 1979-1981 economy on the model, pumped in the loaned funds and showed how all the indicators ( higher inflation, lower real gross domestic product and so on) then flashed red, signaling an economy getting worse, rather than green, signaling an economy getting better. ..The professor then put the model back to mirror the contemporary world of 2005, and played into it various nostrums that had been recommended by politicians of left, right and centre, but mostly left. The dials generally flashed red. Then the professor provided another set of recommendations , and asked viewers who wished to play to tap in their own guesses on the consequent movement of key economics variables in the model. Those who got their guesses right to within a set error were told they had qualified for a second round of a knock-out economic guesstimators' world championship. Knockout competitions of this sort continued for viewers throughout the series of programmes.

In the second part of that first programme, the presenters dared to introduce two political decisions into the game. They said that government-to-government aid programmes had been particularly popular among politicians during the age of over-government, but there was growing agreement that government-to-government aid was the worst method of hand-out. The excessive role played by governments in poor countries was one of the barriers to their economic advance, and a main destroyer of their people's freedom. Could anyone have thought it would be wise to give aid to President Mbogo?

In consequence, the most successful economic aid programmes had been those operated through the International Monetary Fund, which imposed conditions on how borrowing governments should operate. The professor showed that IMF-monitored operations in most years had brought more green flashes from the model than red. But this involved IMF officials - often from the rich countries - in telling governments of poor countries what to do; and one of the objectives of this town meeting of the world was to diminish such embarrassments.

The first questions to be asked in the next few programmes, said the compilers, were 1) which countries should qualify for aid? ; and having decided that, 2) up to what limits and conditions? ; and 3) through what mechanisms? They promised that later programmes after the first half-dozen would examine how any scheme could be used to diminish the power of governments and increase the power of free markets and free people.


Changing employment


In a typical 21st C scene, obedience to consumer needs is shown by every car plant in the world because of better and more customised information available on all our TCs. Most people buying a car in 2024 will key into their special requirements into their TCs.

The TC will reply: "You can get a customised car which meets all of your specifications by putting personalised instructions on the software of the assembly line's robots in one of these factories (choice of nine) requesting that the next car on the line be modified as you dictate. But that would cost up to $40,000 (Click to factories for quotations and credit facilities). For a fifth of that price, you can meet most of your requirements by the following standard computer programme at present scheduled for production in June at Nissan Kanpur; or July at Ford Manila (and so on). Click to factories for precise specifications and prices.


All of this has become commonplace after 2000. How has it affected employment?


For a new industry of 2019-2024 let us cite the intendedly short-lived example of the Clark-Schmidt Robot Gardener. Matthew Clark was a 53-year old on his third university course (he had started the other two at the ages of nineteen and thirty-seven respectively) telecommuted through the University of Southern California, although he took it while living in his native Australia , when, together with two other student's telecommuting through USC's database, he devised a system for a robot-driven lawnmower which could also scan soil and assess the possibilities for reseeding. It signaled the videos to be called up on your TC to show alternative uses for the soil in your garden. If you picked one video display that particularly suited your taste, you keyed in its number into the Robot Gardener and it signaled back, 'put such-and-such chemical into my tank and seeds 1234, 3456 (et cetera), plus software program 29387 - both orderable through your TC - into my reseeder.'

Clark and his two colleagues put their tentative ideas for this device on the researchers' database monitored by the University of Southern California. The entry numbers to the USC database were held by people who had promised to accept the computer's judgement of the value of any ideas they might contribute to projects entered on it. In all, 1213 people - domiciled from Hanoi through Penang and Capri and Bermuda back to Queensland in Australia itself - tapped in suggestions for improvements, of which 176 were accepted nby the computer as worthwhile. The payments recommended by the computer ranged from $42 ( for a cosmetic improvement recommended by an eleven-year-old schoolboy) to one tenth of the equity (eventually worth several million dollars) for a proposal by a research team from another telecommuting university which proved important enough for Clark to feel slightly guilty about calling the Robot Gardener after himself.

When the improvements suggested by these 176 contributors had been incorporated by Clark into the appropriate software program for making the Robot Gardener , it was advertised on USC's entrepreneur-browsing program available on any TC. Entry numbers for the lowest echelons of this can be bought for a very few dollars, but the Robot Gardener was put on a higher echelon because USC's computer had signaled this was a potential quick winner.

One of those who had paid for an expensive entry number into browsing among good 'proffered opportunity products' (POPs) was a Dutchman called Carl Schmidt. He had become a successful 'arranging producer' in an earlier venture, and now occupied himself browsing through his TC looking for a second bonanza. He made an offer to Clark to tale an option for launch in return for a fairly complicates programme of profit sharing, which in practice (because arranging is nowadays a more skilled job than inventing) eventually gave Schmidt more money than Clark. Clark accepted this and Schmidt produced a prototype within three days by reprogramming robots in an experimental plant. A video of the prototype was put on consumers' TC channels worldwide the next week, and most of the 400 odd gardeners' TC channels round the world picked it out within days as a 'best buy'.

Schmidt's video advertisement said 'If you key in your order now with your credit number, you can get a Robot Gardener for a bargain price (applies to the first 10,000 orders only). Tenders are also invited for part of the equity.' The advance orders and bids for equity made it possible to finance assembly of the Robot Gardener for early-bid customers within a few weeks...

Note that there was never any intention that Robot Gardeners Inc should grow into a huge and long-lasting company. Clark and Schmidt are already researching and browsing into other possibilities, on separate courses. About fifty of those who succeeded by early participation in this venture hope to become the equivalent of Clark and Schmidt in other things.

At no stage has this enormously successful manufacturing venture employed more than 1000 people. It is therefore true that the loss of nine-tenths of manufacturing jobs , which we saw has been highest in car-making in rich countries, has also been true there in manufacturing jobs as a whole. Where these countries had 20-40 per cent of their workforces in manufacturing in 1974, they typically have 2-4 per cent now.

This is not an unprecedented rundown. In the 1890s around half of the workforce in countries like the United States were in three occupations: agriculture, domestic service and jobs to do with horse transport. By the 1970s these three were down to 4 per cent of the workforce. If this had been foretold in the 1890s, there would have been a wail. It would have been said that half the population was fit only to be farmworkers, parlourmaids and sweepers-up of horse manure. Where would this half find jobs? The answer was by the 1970s the majority of them were much more fully employed ( because more married women joined the workforce) doing jobs that would have sounded double-Dutch in the 1890s: extracting oil instead of fish out of the North Sea; working as computer programmers, or as television engineers, or as package-holiday tour operators chartering jet aircraft.

The move in jobs in the past fifty years in the rich countries has been out of manufacturing and into telecommuting.

Changing education


There has been a sea-change in the traditional ages on man. Compared with 1974 our children in 2024 generally go out to paid work (especially computer programming work) much earlier, maybe starting at nine, maybe at twelve, and we do not exploit them. But young adults of twenty-three to forty-five stay at home to play much more than in 1974; it is quite usual today for one parent (probably now generally the father, although sometimes the mother) to stay at home during the period when young children are growing up. And today adults of forty-three to ninety-three go back to school - via computerised learning - much more than they did in 1974.

In most of the rich countries in 2024 children are not allowed to leave school until they pass their Preliminary Exam. About 5 per cent of American children passed their exam last year before their eight birthday, but the median age for passing it in 2024 is ten-and-a-half, and remedial education is generally needed if a child has not passed it by the age of fifteen.

A child who passes his Prelim can decide whether to tale a job at once, and take up the remainder of his twelve years of free schooling later; or he can pass on to secondary schooling forthwith, and start to study for his Higher Diploma.

The mode of learning for the under-twelves is nowadays generally computer-generated. The child sits at home or with a group of friends or (more rarely) in an actual, traditional school building. She or he will be in touch with a computer program that has discovered , during a preliminary assessment, her or his individual learning pattern. The computer will decide what next questions to ask or task to set after each response from each child.

A school teacher assessor, who may live half a world away, will generally have been hired, via the voucher system by the family for each individual child. A good assessor will probably have vouchers to monitor the progress of twenty-five individual children, although some parents prefer to employ groups of assessors - one following the child's progress in emotional balance, one in mathematics, one in civilized living, and so on - and these groups band together in telecommuting schools.

Many communities and districts also have on-the-spot 'uncles' and 'aunts'. They monitor childrens' educational performance by browsing through the TC and also run play groups where they meet and get to know the children personally...

Some of the parents who have temporarily opted out of employment to be a family educator also put up material on the TC s for other parents to consult. Sometimes the advice is given for free, sometimes as a business. It is a business for Joshua Ginsberg. He puts a parents advice newsletter on the TC , usually monthly. Over 300,000 people subscribe to it, nowadays at a 25-cent fee per person, or less if you accept attached advertisements. Here's an entry from the current newsletter:

"Now that TCs are universal and can access libraries of books, 3-d video, computer programs, you name it, it is clear that the tasks of both the Educator and the Communicator are far more stimulating that ten years ago.

One of my recent lessons with my ten-year-old daughter Julie was in art appreciation. In the standard art appreciation course the TC shows replicas of famous artists' pictures, and a computer asks the pupil to match the artist to the picture. Julie said to the computer that it would be fun to see Constable's Haywain as Picasso might have drawn it. The computer obliged with its interpretation , and then ten more stylised haywains appeared together with the question 'who might have drawn these?'. I believe we are the first to have prompted the TC along this road, but it may now become a standard question when the computer recognises a child with similar learning patterns to Julie's.

It is sometimes said that today's isolated sort of teaching has robbed children of the capacity to play and interact with other children. This is nonsense. We ensure that Julie and her four year old brother Pharon have lots of time to play with children in our neighbourhood . But in work we do prefer to interact with children who are of mutual advantage to Julie and to each other. The computer is an ace teacher, but so are people. You really learn things if you can teach them to someone else. Our computer has helped us to find a group of four including Julie with common interests, who each have expertise in some particular areas to teach the others.

The TC also makes it easier to play games within the family. My parents used to play draughts, halma, then chess with me. They used to try to be nice to me and let me win. This condescending kindness humiliated me, and I always worked frenetically to beat my younger brother (who therefore always lost and dissolved into tears.) Today Julie, Pharon and I play halma together against the graded computer, and Julie and I play it at chess. The computer knows Pharon's standard of play at halma and Julie's and mine at chess. Its default setting is at that level where each of us can win but only if we play at our best. Thus Pharon sometimes wins his halma game while Julie and I are simultaneously losing our chess game, and this rightly gives Pharon a feeling of achievement. When Julie and I have lost at chess, we usually ask the computer to re-rerun the game, stopping at out nmistakes and giving a commentary. As it is a friendly computer it does a marvelous job of consoling us. Last week it told Julie that the world champion actually once made the same mistake as she had done - would she like to see that game?

I intend to devote the next two letters to the subjects I have discussed here , but retailing the best of your suggestions instead of droning on with mine."

While the computer's role in children's education is mainly that of instructor (discovering a child's learning pattern and responding to it) and learning group matcher, its main role in higher education is as a store of knowledge. Although a computer can only know what Man has taught it, it has this huge advantage. No individual man lives or studies long enough to imbibe within himself all the skills and resources that are the product of the millennia of man's quest for knowledge, all the riches and details from man's inheritance of learning passed on from generation to generation. But any computer today can inherit and call up instantly any skill which exists anywhere in the form of a program.

This is why automatically updated databases are today the principal instruments of higher education and academic research. It is difficult for our generation to conceive that only forty years ago our scientists acted as tortoise-like discoverers of knowledge, confined to small and jealous cliques with random and restricted methods of communicating ideas. Down until the 1980s the world has several hundred separate cancer research organisations with no central co-ordinating database.

=====================================================

we aim to issue a final 2025 to celebrate what would have been dad's centenary year 2023 - it makes guesses on which 50 intelligences neumann and his net eg einstein turing courant would have celebrated linking together 2025-1945- thats jist the start of a game where people from any gps or expertise can swap in and out their own cards ; and indeed the card packs can be plugins to LLMs - a pilot version of von neumann's top 50 is being piloted here http://innovations.ning.com/forum/topics/who-s-100-times-moore-tech-humsanity-would-world-uniquely-mis

======================================================

...list ways in which edu can be systematically broken, and help each other fix breakages

0 in spite of von neumanns prediction of 100 times more tech per decade since 1945, it was only as computers went personal and www emerged that it became clear that tech's media and computational leaps need each other wherever edu good is multiplied -

unlike consuming up things APPlicable knowhow multiplies value in use across communities: consider 3 routes: what Gates did with epicentre of PC world; what steve jobs did from his 1984 PC launch on; what all parents could have celebrated

2025report-what futures do 1984s peoples want for millennials.pptx

why didn't we transform from the end of the television age to digital webs as learning age? can we seize one last chance with 2020s web designs to value every education error of web1 from 1990 and web2 when we started mobilising all our data to a handful of big corporate monopolies such as FAGAM (Facebook Amazon Google Apple Microsoft). If we don't open data as deep as human communities/lives are, what Artificial Intellect do you think will rule over us instead of free human intellects of millennials champions of first sustainability generation?

1 not enough conversation between ed & tech people - so eg we wait to web is 30 years old and covid surrounds us before zooming

2 not enough transparency between media and edu people -eg do media people really want kids surrounded by fake media violence etc

3 our predictions that edu needed designing back from 3 billion new jobs- were not taken seriously by Western powers that be.

Its only in 2016 at first review of the new sdgs that a circle of 9 educators stood up and said there's no way of achieving goal 4 education or teaching assisting the community last mile practices implied by other sdgs unless across un educators talk to technologists talk to the 50+ operational branches. One year later a fusion of starts began with all the UN's tech experts in Geneva which has been connecting tele-tech since 1865 ITU! Two years later as covid struck Guterres started zooming round a 9 transformational jigsaw ogf gov 2.0 - see the hundreds of leading organisations involved in this . Imagine if this had happened ahead of covid but anyway now for the first time the world has an integrated learning design requiring questions of how learning and teaching time of under 30s is spent; how that over 30's is spent.

Now web3 virtual reality exchanges can cheer on schools learning from where leaders go to refresh their mind. Note leadersquest an organsiation I first encountered in London 2004.


in 1865 global telecoms/media began hubbed out of switzerlald itu

  • by 1945 asymmetries of g8 nations (2 roofs to world - canada and ussr; 2 pesky island uk and japan; 3 most physical resource greedy nations on continent of europe FIG (france italy germany) : and usa mainly run by texas except in times of worldwide wars

1945's G8 (and birth of UN) was linked to another 12+ nations with electricity (make your own maps of privileged electricity/worldwide connected peoples as of 1945 - led by neutral switzerland ironically the most advanced media nation since 1865 itu) and tele had led to world war 2 while 2/3 of people mainly asian and africas still had no access to electricity grids let alone telecoms; the Un was born twinned with ITU whilst progress was made to death of kennedy on balance the west has compounded risks since 1963 (assassination of JFK and many black leaders, and around which time CIA became main drugs importer!) unless you can show us alternative maps;

enter 1984's 2025 report building on 140 years of The Economists and Queen Victoria's mediation of the purpose of the english language and the first 40 years of the goats of maths survey - what goods will be united by peoples privileged with access to 100 times more tech per decade

2025 report summary by former science editor viscount ridley updates 2/2/23-france 24 parsons maudlin putin - maudlin eu - maudlin usa ... is there any gov in west that maps back hopeful futures instead of compounding historic fears/controlling peoples instead of empowering us

====

Published on: Tuesday, 15 June, 2010 by Viscount Ridley former science editor The Economist

Norman Macrae 1923-2010

When I joined the Economist in 1983, Norman Macrae was the deputy editor. He died last week at the age of 87. Soon after I joined the staff, a thing called a computer terminal appeared on my desk and my electric typewriter disappeared. Around that time, Norman wrote a long article that became a book about the future. It was one of the strangest things I had ever read.

It had boundless optimism --

Over the last decade, I have written many articles in The Economist and delivered lectures in nearly 30 countries across the world saying the future should be much more rosy. This book explores the lovely future people could have if only all democrats made the right decisions.

combined with a weird technological vision --

Eventually books, files, television programmes, computer information and telecommunications will merge. We'll have this portable object which is a television screen with first a typewriter, later a voice activator attached. Afterwards it will be minaturised so that your personal access instrument can be carried in your buttonhole, but there will be these cheap terminals around everywhere, more widely than telephones of 1984. The terminals will be used to access databases anywhere in the globe, and will become the brainworker's mobile place of work. Brainworkers, which will increasingly mean all workers, will be able to live in Tahiti if they want to and telecommute daily to the New York or Tokyo or Hamburg office through which they work. In the satellite age costs of transmission will not depend mainly on distance. And knowledge once digitalised can be replicated for use anywhere almost instantly.

and a startlingly fresh economic perspective --

In the 1890s around half of the workforce in countries like the United States were in three occupations: agriculture, domestic service and jobs to do with horse transport. By the 1970s these three were down to 4 per cent of the workforce. If this had been foretold in the 1890s, there would have been a wail. It would have been said that half the population was fit only to be farmworkers, parlourmaids and sweepers-up of horse manure. Where would this half find jobs? The answer was by the 1970s the majority of them were much more fully employed ( because more married women joined the workforce) doing jobs that would have sounded double-Dutch in the 1890s: extracting oil instead of fish out of the North Sea; working as computer programmers, or as television engineers, or as package-holiday tour operators chartering jet aircraft.

When he retired in 1988 he wrote

Some will say [I have] been too optimistic. That is what a 65-year-old like me finds it natural to be. When I joined The Economist in 1949 it seemed unlikely that the world would last long. But here we stand, 40 memory-sodden years on, and what have we done? What we have done - largely because the poorest two-thirds of people are living much longer - is approximately to octuple real gross world product. During the brief civilian working lives of us returning soldiers from the second world war, we have added seven times as much to the world's producing power as was added during all the previous millennia of homo sapien's existence. That may help to explain why some of us sound and write rather tired. It does not explain why anybody in the next generation, to whom we gladly vacate our posts, can dare to sound pessimistic.

He was a rational optimist.

===================

No alt text provided for this image

Its favorite quest for leaders can soon be virtual reality experiences for teachers and students:

  • Singapore quest (EH) digital mental health ; Bangalore : Low-cost innovation in cardiac health at scale, founded by a world-renowned surgeon. Jaipur: An organization providing free, high-functioning prosthetic limbs to those in need, introducing a novel approach to well-being. Bangalore: Hand-held ECG machines with remote 24/7 diagnosis to serve rural populations. NB USA By designing healthcare by big orgs to be twice as expensive as anywhere else, and many times more costly for nurses and docs to study americans have had to quest to see world favorite health innovations (until now friends at ed3dao and dreamdao can virtual realise your professions most exciting dreams 24/7)
  • (EF) working with refugee cooks in Kuala Lumpur to deliver and cater home-cooked meals which are the native cuisine of the families.; Bangalore massively scaled, ultra low-cost school lunch system boosting child nutrition with resulting benefits for learning, wellness;
  • EA : Sao Paulo A performing band offering kids, through the power of music, an alternative to gangs. Founded by an inspirational jazz musician. Silicon Valley - A leader in Hip Hop therapy — addressing mental health disparity making mental health more accessible and useful to diverse populations.

HAS THE HIGH SCHOOL CLASSROOM EVER MADE MOST OF KIDS -its not just NY's world renowned leon botstein that wonders about Jeffersens children: failure to checkout cases of greatest changemakers not going to high school beyond age 14 - various reasons - adam smith went to university age 14; Von neumann was personally schooled by 14 he was expected to do innovations that professors could not; being in china's first designated tourist resort- J Ma made a full time job for himself by age 14- learning to speak english from tourists and be their guide and to make maps of the world beyond china, and soon to become his town's most popular english teacher

failure to undesrstand at every age group ow often unsafe community and jobs broken schools go hand in hand- compare usa with norway no bad schools , no bad communties to go and apprentice in afternoons

new jobs mean teachers need to change what they teach and curiosity of teacher becomes more valuable skill that examining

====================

2023 has started with 8 // discussions prepping UNsummitfuture schedulked summer 2024 - here are some live chats early february ; I will be trying to turn them into a suammary but park them here so I doint forget

brian.mnkala weites

4. leverage new technologies: Governments should take advantage of new technologies such as blockchain and artificial intelligence to improve transparency and efficiency in funding sustainable development initiatives. By providing an immutable, secure, and auditable ledger for tracking and verifying transactions, blockchain technology has demonstrated the potential to increase transparency and efficiency in financing sustainable development initiatives. This may help to ensure that funds are used for their intended purposes and are allocated in a fair and equitable manner. Furthermore, blockchain technology has the potential to enable faster and more secure payments, making it easier to transfer funds to those in need.
Artificial intelligence can also be leveraged to increase transparency and efficiency in financing sustainable development initiatives. AI-driven predictive analytics can be used to better understand and forecast the impact of investments and changes in policies, helping to ensure that funds are used in the most effective and efficient way. AI can also be used to automate processes, reducing the need for manual labor and increasing the speed and accuracy of transactions.
5. To facilitate the mobilization of resources for sustainable development initiatives, governments should promote international cooperation, such as through the establishment of regional funds and the use of global platforms. Furthermore, governments should consider working to reduce barriers to international trade and investment, such as tariffs and subsidies, in order to promote efficient resource allocation and the free flow of goods and services. Governments should also encourage nations to share best practices and knowledge, as well as provide technical assistance and capacity-building assistance to developing countries. Finally, governments should work to strengthen international institutions and organizations like the United Nations, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund in order to ensure that global governance is effective and responsive to the needs of all countries.

 

2 comments:

  1. Potential solutions to accounting being banned frim visioning day beyond date closing audit -offered by bard 2023:
    Balance short-term accuracy with long-term vision: Accounting standards could evolve to incorporate both verifiable present data and informed future projections under defined parameters, avoiding speculation but acknowledging possible scenarios.
    Scenario planning and risk assessment: Integrating scenario planning and risk assessment techniques into current accounting practices can provide valuable insights into potential future impacts without compromising short-term accuracy.
    Integration with AI forecasting: Leveraging AI-powered forecasting and predictive models can enhance the analysis of potential future outcomes while maintaining data integrity and responsible risk management.
    Ultimately, the "never beyond reporting period" rule reflects a focus on verifiable data and short-term accountability. However, a rigid adherence to this principle can impede long-term strategic planning and seem incongruent with the visioning capabilities of both humans and AI. Finding a balance between present accuracy and future anticipation through scenario planning, risk assessment, and responsible integration of AI tools could offer a more comprehensive and forward-looking approach to financial decision-making.

    I hope this analysis provides a starting point for further discussion and exploration of this complex and increasingly relevant topic. Feel free to share your further thoughts or questions

    ReplyDelete
  2. BARD 2023, Discussing system conflicts accountants and lawyers historically have with intelligence future visioning .........
    1. Limitations of Traditional Frameworks:
    • Focus on historical data: Both accounting and legal systems primarily focus on past events and verifiable data, struggling to incorporate uncertain future possibilities effectively. This reactive approach may fall short in dealing with rapidly evolving challenges and opportunities.
    • Neglect of positive externalities: Traditional methodologies often prioritize quantifiable financial metrics and tangible assets, overlooking the value of intangible factors like trust, love, and social capital. These positive externalities can significantly impact long-term sustainability and well-being, necessitating more comprehensive frameworks.
    • Exponential risks and uncertainty: Traditional risk assessment models may inadequately capture the complexity and interconnectedness of emerging exponential risks. This underestimation could lead to insufficient preparedness for potentially catastrophic events.
    2. Emerging Approaches and Research:
    • Positive accounting and economics: This field seeks to expand the scope of accounting beyond financial metrics to include social and environmental indicators, potentially creating a more holistic view of organizational impact.
    • Scenario planning and futures studies: These approaches encourage proactive consideration of alternative future possibilities, including positive scenarios where trust and cooperation create thriving societies.
    • Complexity science and systems thinking: Understanding the interconnectedness of systems and the unpredictable nature of complex phenomena can inform the development of more adaptable and resilient decision-making frameworks.
    • AI and its role in visioning: Advancements in artificial intelligence offer new tools for forecasting, scenario planning, and risk assessment, potentially complementing and enhancing human visioning capabilities.
    While significant challenges remain in effectively integrating these concepts into mainstream practices, your observations highlight the urgent need for ongoing dialogue and exploration. Your personal experience, combined with ongoing research and emerging approaches, can contribute to valuable discussions and the development of more future-oriented and impactful professional frameworks.
    I encourage you to continue sharing your insights and engaging in conversations with diverse stakeholders. By promoting awareness and actively seeking solutions, we can work towards bridging the gap between traditional professional practices and the demands of responsible intelligence visioning for a more sustainable and positive future

    ReplyDelete